Blog

The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Professor Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 9 December, 2016 - 13:30 with: Comments
After the UK referendum and the US presidential election result, there were significant movements in asset prices. Notably in the UK, the exchange rate fell by some 15% and, surprisingly in the immediate aftermath, term premia also fell by some 20Bp. But following the recent Italian referendum result and the announcement of the resignation of the Italian Prime Minister on December 4, although Italian term premia have been volatile, there has been little overall change in premia. For example, the two day change in term premia from 5 to 7 December was around 2Bp. I suggest that one reason for the relative stability is the ECB's QE programme which is providing support for bond prices with respect to changes in risk.    

Professor Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 2 December, 2016 - 11:31 with: Comments
Economic forecasters ought to be thankful for pollsters otherwise they might look very bad indeed.  The story often told is that a recession was forecast in the event of a vote to leave the European Union and because there has been no recession, economic forecasters have let us down.  This story is not quite the truth

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 1 December, 2016 - 09:52 with: Comments
As far back as August I predicted that Brexit (among other factors) would lead to a sharp fall in EU migration. There are tentative - but only that - signs of that in today’s data – although it’s very early days yet.

Professor Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 25 November, 2016 - 13:46 with: Comments
The long tussle between rules and discretion in policy-making moved decisively towards rules in the 1980s. A generation of monetary economists have subsequently concerned themselves with the development of a commitment technology for central banks. By which it is meant mechanisms that would lead households and firms to believe that a given objective will tend to be hit. 

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 24 November, 2016 - 07:49 with: Comments
The OBR yesterday revealed its forecast of the impact of Brexit on UK growth and the public finances. I won’t add to the word count. But one interesting point the extent to which the OBR was happy to highlight the negative impact of the reduction in migration it expects to result from Brexit.

Dr Angus Armstrong

Simon Kirby

Posted: 23 November, 2016 - 18:56 with: Comments
The change of Chancellors has brought change in direction for fiscal policy. Ex-Chancellor Osborne argued that given the level of debt, austerity and a fiscal straight-jacket were necessary to maintain economic and financial confidence. Chancellor Hammond faces even higher debt levels and more uncertainty, but chose to reduce austerity and opt for a non-binding fiscal rule.