Blog
The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.
Posted: 21 November, 2016 - 11:42
with: Comments
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, will present his Autumn Statement to Parliament on Wednesday. In the heated debate over austerity, this piece offers three facts about debt and deficits which, I hope, will help shed light on the issues he will face.
Posted: 18 November, 2016 - 09:54
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This has been a year of miracles. But unlike Larkin's year of 1963 in which the baby boomers broke free jointly into prosperity and security, we may look back on this year as the end of the long process of liberalisation and globalisation that had been set in train by the postwar consensus.
Posted: 15 November, 2016 - 13:02
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Don’t let the headlines fool you: consumer price inflation is on the rise. Data from the ONS released today shows that in the year to October the consumer price index rose by 0.9 per cent. Quoting the ONS, “Although the rate was slightly lower than in September 2016, it remained higher than the rates otherwise seen since late 2014”. It’s also worth remembering that the ONS figure describe the past, not the future. The impact of the gradual appreciation of sterling that took place between 2013 and 2015 as well as the fall in oil prices witnessed in the first half of 2015 had been weighing down on inflation. As these temporary factors drop out of the calculation, inflation should rebound.
Posted: 13 November, 2016 - 12:52
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Since Donald Trump’s victory last week, the odds of Marine Le Pen (National Front) winning the French Presidential election in May have shortened to 2:1. That is a 33% chance compared to a 56% chance for the frontrunner and establishment candidate Alain Juppe.
Le Pen is committed to holding a French referendum on EU membership (‘Frexit’) which would have huge and unpredictable consequences for the EU. It is difficult to see how the other 27 EU nations would have the time, inclination or incentive to accommodate the UK while faced with a threat to its very own existence.
Posted: 11 November, 2016 - 12:50
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Separating monetary from fiscal policy is no simple matter. Both are primarily designed to help smooth economic fluctuations. Budget deficits limit the depths of recessions as do low interest rates.
Posted: 10 November, 2016 - 08:37
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What sort of Brexit might the Government be able to negotiate? The term hard Brexit is used ubiquitously but defined infrequently. It is generally defined in terms of the relationship the UK will have with the EU’s single market.
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