Blog

The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 11 September, 2016 - 18:19 with: Comments
Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, said almost nothing on the Andrew Marr show today. Given that there is currently almost a complete policy vacuum in government, this was entirely sensible.  However, her comments – following Theresa May’s last week – are being reported as a further endorsement of a “work permit” system for economic migration versus the “points-based” one proposed by Vote Leave during the referendum campaign.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 29 August, 2016 - 17:33 with: Comments
 As previous readers of my blogs on this topic will know, for much of the last year I (along with Michael O’Connor) have been pressing HMRC and DWP to release more data on how many National Insurance numbers issued to EU nationals are actually in use.  Last Thursday, we edged closer to an answer.

Rebecca Piggott

Posted: 26 August, 2016 - 14:51 with: Comments
With the decision to leave the EU, there has been much discussion about whether the UK will enter recession. This blog provides some information of the frequency of recessions in recent UK economic history, and puts into context the probability of recession in the aftermath of the referendum.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 17 August, 2016 - 09:53 with: Comments
What do today’s labour market statistics tell us about what’s going to happen to the UK labour market as a result of the referendum result? On the face of it, not much.  The headline figures for employment, unemployment and so on are based on Labour Force Survey data for the months for April to June (and the changes are calculated with respect to the three months prior to that).    The “single month” statistics do show a small uptick in unemployment (from its April low of 4.8% to 5.1%) - but these numbers are volatile, which is why the ONS doesn’t use them as the headline.

Dr Heather Rolfe

Posted: 11 August, 2016 - 09:00 with: Comments
The referendum result took the nation by surprise. Among others, politicians and journalists voiced this collective shock, expressed by some as jubilation, by others as dismay and even by regret.
Posted: 5 August, 2016 - 12:23 with: Comments
This is a guest blog by Richard Disney, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, A Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics, University College, London, and a Research Fellow of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.