Posts from NIESR staff and visitors on research findings and policy.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 29 April, 2016 - 11:49 with: Comments
The OECD’s report on the economic impact of Brexit is probably the most comprehensive and analytically rigorous produced so far (NIESR's own contribution to this debate will be published on May 10).

Dr Heather Rolfe

Posted: 27 April, 2016 - 10:26 with: Comments
A large section of the public would like to see significant restrictions on free movement whatever the result of the EU referendum. Employers have a particular interest in the outcome and have joined the debate but there has been little independent assessment of their position on the issue. Our research, out today, aimed to help fill this gap through research with employers in three sectors – food and drink, hospitality and construction.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 19 April, 2016 - 16:08 with: Comments
The Treasury analysis of the economic impacts of Brexit, published yesterday, has already been extensively examined.

Jessica Baker

Rebecca Piggott

Oriol Carreras

Jack Meaning

Simon Kirby

Posted: 16 March, 2016 - 18:25 with: Comments
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published their macroeconomic forecast today. The outlook is one of continued, albeit moderate, economic growth but more subdued than in their November 2015 forecast. This implies the OBR expect the nation to be around 1½ per cent poorer than they had previously thought by the end of this Parliamentary term[1]. The bulk of the downgrade is explained by domestic factors: a downward revision to potential productivity growth and investment volumes.

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 10 March, 2016 - 18:06 with: Comments
Today – after much chivvying by the UK Statistics Authority – DWP have finally replied to my Freedom of Information Request of December 4th last year. This simply asked them to explain some of the assumptions they’d made to get to the Prime Minister’s deeply dubious assertion that We now know that, at any one time, around 40 percent of all recent European Economic Area migrants are supported by the UK benefits system

Jonathan Portes

Posted: 24 February, 2016 - 12:57 with: Comments
 Just as the referendum debate begins in earnest, tomorrow sees the publication of ONS’ Quarterly Migration Statistics.  As ever, the headline numbers for net migration will be closely scrutinised, and in particular flows from the EU. Forecasting migration numbers is even more of a mugs’ game than economic forecasting in general, so I won’t even try, but here are some things to watch out for: