The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Prof Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 24 March, 2017 - 11:08 with: Comments
The UK has often been described as being an economically divided country. Initially this divide was related to the decline of traditional primary (for example, mining) and secondary (manufacturing) industries and the rise of the service sector in London, which increasingly provided legal, financial, accounting and educational services to the rest of the world. Oddly enough both sets of industries, whether in decline or still growing by the late 20th century, had strong roots in the industrial revolution. This simple observation tells us that we cannot know today which sorts of industries will necessarily thrive into the 21st century: Hoxton hipsters making furniture might dominate the pricing of credit default swaps.  

Prof Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 17 March, 2017 - 11:42 with: Comments
First let's ask what explains household debt? Well if the household formulates a rational plan that conditions on its lifetime budget constraint, over its lifetime debt should be zero. With many overlapping households we might expect to observe debt in a young economy when the proportion of young outweighs the old.

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 14 March, 2017 - 08:51 with: Comments
Brexit need not have led to a second Scottish referendum. But the UK Government’s policy of ever harder Brexit, without so much as a vote, raises issues of political legitimacy north of the border. The Scottish Government faces daunting economic hurdles to convince its electorate. But if we have learned one thing over the last year, the feeling of exclusion can override economic logic.

Prof Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 10 March, 2017 - 14:55 with: Comments
The resilience of output following the referendum has been most welcome and has led to many forecasters gradually cranking up their central views for 2017.  On Wednesday, the OBR plumped for a central case of 2% this year compared to 1.4% in November.  The Institute itself also published an upward revision in February and thought that output would be most likely to grow by some 1.7% this year.  But it is the composition of that growth and the risks present a great concern.

Prof. Simon Wren-Lewis

Posted: 8 March, 2017 - 16:36 with: Comments
For the last several budgets/autumn statements I have agreed to write an immediate response for some media outlet, and have therefore felt obliged to watch either the speech itself, or the media reports on the day. The good news is that no one has asked this year, and so I can ignore all budget coverage until tomorrow.

Prof Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 3 March, 2017 - 11:59 with: Comments
In the week before the Spring budget, we are all supposed to get excited about the odd change in tax rates or the TV license fee. And worry about the excise duties on various viscous hydrocarbons. In fact, what we ought to be worried about will probably mostly be missed by commentators: that is whether the government is meeting its obligation to reduce risk.