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to the May 2010 issue of the monthly e-newsletter from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
This edition gives details of several forthcoming seminars and the latest National Institute Economic Review.
If you know of anyone else from your organisation who may be interested in receiving this newsletter, please pass it on to them using the 'Forward this email' facility above.
Regards,
Goran Stankov
Communications Manager, NIESR
National Institute Economic Review
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The current issue of the National Institute Economic Review focuses on Economic performance under Labour, and was published on Friday, 30th April 2010.
The next issue of the National Institute Economic Review will be published at the end of July 2010.
The full version is available by contacting Sage Publications at http://ner.sagepub.com./.
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View Press Conference /February 02, 2010/ Video
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email: subscriptions@sagepub.co.uk online at http://ner.sagepub.com/.
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NIESR'S Monthly GDP Estimates
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WEAK GROWTH CONTINUES
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in April. The ONS reported a figure of 0.2 per cent for the three months ending in February, but buoyant March production data suggest that an upward revision of this estimate is likely. These data suggest that the competitive situation in which the UK economy finds itself following the exchange rate adjustments of the last two years is beginning to have a favourable effect on output although the uncertainties surrounding the signal provided by monthly data remain. More importantly, however, we note that a further acceleration of growth is needed if progress is to be made in closing the output gap which has opened up since the start of the depression in March 2008. The recent action in the Euro Area to address the financial problems of some members suggests that policy-makers are very aware of the risks that further financial shocks might lead to a double dip and this in turn increases the prospects for a stable recovery.
The National Institute interprets the term "recession" to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while "depression" is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time. We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2012.
Our track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that our projection for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.1-0.2% point when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics. This comparison can be made only for complete calendar quarters. Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this and they are also likely to be less accurate in the current disturbed economic circumstances.
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal. From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has caused us some problems in estimating GDP. From our November 2006 press release we have therefore reverted to using a model of private services output based on indicator variables. This means that, while all our figures for calendar quarters are fully coherent with ONS data, our estimates of monthly private service output are not. The series can be thought of as indicating the underlying value of the ONS series.
For more information please telephone Martin Weale on 020 7654 1945.
Subscription to NIESR's Monthly GDP Estimates Service
NIESR uses statistical projection techniques to project UK GDP one month ahead, giving NIESR's highly respected monthly UK GDP estimates. We also estimate economic growth in the three months ending in the month just ended. This means that each calendar quarter an estimate of quarterly growth is produced about 3 weeks ahead of the Office of National Statistics. Four summary tables are available to Premium GDP Estimates Subscribers, as well as a full monthly set of time series:Summary table of quarterly growth rates showing monthly data, 3 months ending in that month, and quarterly growth (% per quarter). All contain figures for industry & GDP.
1. Output by sector (industry, agriculture, construction, private services, public services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP.
2. Output in quarter ending in month shown by sector (as above).
3. Growth in quarter ending in month shown over previous quarter (% at annual rate) by sector (as above).
For more information and pricing on GDP Estimates Subscription, please contact Goran Stankov, on g.stankov@niesr.ac.uk or on 0207-654-1931.
View our Monthly GDP Estimates Page
Basel III and banking regulation
What do we regulate? When do we regulate it? and How tough should the regulation be?
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is holding an ESRC sponsored seminar at 12.30pm on the Tuesday 18th May 2010. The seminar will make a major input into the debate of restructuring the financial system in advance of the G20 meeting in June. Professor Charles Goodhart, an Institute Governor and former member of Council, will introduce the topic, and discuss recent proposals and the difficulties of implementing them. Specific suggestions on changes in regulation will be made by Professor Ray Barrell from NIESR and Charles Haswell from HSBC.
Professor Barrell will draw on work undertaken for the FSA and the ESRC on the causes and consequences of banking crises, and on the costs and benefits of bank regulation. He will make a case for increasing capital and liquidity requirements, and analyse their effects on the economy. Charles Haswell will discuss an alternative approach to regulating the financial sector to that adopted by Basel. The event will conclude with a round table to discuss the case for regulation and the impacts on consumers. This will begin with short introductions to the discussion by Martin Weale and Phil Davis from NIESR and conclude with a wider debate to include contributions from industry experts.
It is hoped the debate will set out the issues to do with the prevention of crises, the optimal speed of implementation of policy and the design of fair policies between banks, consumers and countries. Policy makers, academics and practitioners will all find the debate of interest. We look forward to welcoming you to this highly topical event which will give you the opportunity to hear the views of highly influential figures recognised for their expertise in the area of financial regulation.
The event will be held at NIESR's offices at 2 Dean Trench St and begin with a sandwich lunch at 12pm. The seminar itself will start at 12.30pm concluding at around 2.30pm. The event is free but registration is required.
If you would like to attend the event or to receive further information, please contact Pat Shaw by
email: p.shaw@niesr.ac.uk or phone: 020 7654 1905.
NiGEMWEB is the new web-based product designed to provide economists with the latest forecasts. If you are interested in just looking around, you can sign in as guest. LINK.
- Barrell, R., Davis, E.P., Karim, D. and Liadze, I. - Calibrating Macroprudential Policy, NIESR Dp no. 354
- Riley, R. - Industry knowledge spillovers: Do workers gain from their collective experience?, NIESR Dp no. 353
- Dorsett, R., Lui, S. and Weale, M. - Economic Benefits of Lifelong Learning, NIESR Dp no. 352
- Barrell, R., E P Davis, Karim, D. and Liadze, I. - The Impact of Global Imbalances: Does the Current Account Balance Help to Predict Banking Crises in OECD Countries?, NIESR Dp no. 351
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