Monthly GDP Estimates

NIESR uses statistical projection techniques to project UK GDP one month ahead, giving NIESR's highly respected monthly UK GDP estimates. We also estimate economic growth in the three months ending in the month just ended. This means that each calendar quarter an estimate of quarterly growth is produced about 3 weeks ahead of the Office of National Statistics. The model is used internally in the Institute quarterly forecast published in the Review. Externally, it is used by a group of 50 model subscribers, mainly in the policy community, including the ECB, IMF, the central banks of the UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, Portugal and Sweden, and a number of finance ministries as well as the ESRI in Japan. These bodies regularly use the model in their publications. Usage both in the Institute and outside it is divided about equally between forecast related tasks and policy analysis. The model framework can be used by any user to build a bespoke model or to change the existing structure.

The importance of the NIESR GDP estimates is well recognised, being widely reported in the press. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee sometimes refer to them as one of the factors which influence interest rate decisions. Four summary tables are available, as well as a full monthly set of time series:

  • Table 1: Summary table of quarterly growth rates showing monthly data, 3 months ending in that month, and quarterly growth (% per quarter). All contain figures for industry & GDP.
  • Table 2: Output by sector (industry, agriculture, construction, private services, public services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
  • Table 3: Output in quarter ending in month shown by sector (as above)
  • Table 4: Growth in quarter ending in month shown over previous quarter (% at annual rate) by sector (as above)

    • The data are always consistent with the latest official data. The chart below shows a comparison of NIESR estimates of quarterly growth with the ONS first estimates (produced 3 weeks later). This validates our approach.



    GDP Estimates Methodology

    Click here for a paper describing the methodology used to produce the data.


    GDP Estimates Schedule

  • 8th September 2010
  • 7th October 2010
  • 9th November 2010
  • 7th December 2010


    • Subscription

    Subscription offers NIESR's GDP estimates a day before being released into the public domain. Subscribers receive the estimates by 11am on the day of release, which is embargoed to journalists until 0001 hours the following day. The cost of subscription is £1000 + VAT per annum.

    To subscribe, please contact NIESR, quoting reference NIESRWEB.

    Phone: +44 (0)20 7654 1931 / email: enquiries@niesr.ac.uk