Monthly GDP Estimates

NIESR uses statistical projection techniques to project UK GDP one month ahead, giving NIESR's highly respected monthly UK GDP estimates. We also estimate economic growth in the three months ending in the month just ended. This means that each calendar quarter an estimate of quarterly growth is produced about 3 weeks ahead of the Office of National Statistics. The model is used internally in the Institute quarterly forecast published in the Review. Externally, it is used by a group of subscribers.

The importance of the NIESR GDP estimates is well recognised, being widely reported in the press. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee sometimes refer to them as one of the factors which influence interest rate decisions. Four summary tables are available, as well as a full monthly set of time series:

  • Table 1: Summary table of quarterly growth rates showing monthly data, 3 months ending in that month, and quarterly growth (% per quarter). All contain figures for industry & GDP.
  • Table 2: Output by sector (industry, agriculture, construction, private services, public services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
  • Table 3: Output in quarter ending in month shown by sector (as above)
  • Table 4: Growth in quarter ending in month shown over previous quarter (% at annual rate) by sector (as above)

    • The data are always consistent with the latest official data. The chart below shows a comparison of NIESR estimates of quarterly growth with the ONS first estimates (produced 3 weeks later). This validates our approach.



    GDP Estimates Methodology

    Click here for a paper describing the methodology used to produce the data.


    GDP Estimates Schedule

  • 7th December 2011
  • 12th January 2012
  • 09th February 2012
  • 09th March 2012
  • 05th April 2012
  • 10th May 2012
  • 12th June 2012
  • 10th July 2012
  • 07th August 2012
  • 07th September 2012
  • 09th October 2012
  • 06th November 2012
  • 07th December 2012

    • Subscription

    Subscription offers NIESR's GDP estimates a day before being released into the public domain. Subscribers receive the estimates by 11:00 hours on the day of release, which is embargoed to journalists until 15.00 hours the same day. The cost of subscription is £1000 + VAT per annum.

    To subscribe, please contact NIESR, quoting reference NIESRWEB.

    Phone: +44 (0)20 7654 1931 / email: enquiries@niesr.ac.uk