A common aim of regulatory proposals since 2008 has been a desire to avoid a
recurrence of the global financial crisis. Looking particularly at the UK regulatory system in the context of Basel III, this conference evaluates whether there has been progress towards “never again” –
a negligible risk of a costly future systemic crisis. Is the banking system already more robust, will current proposals make the system significantly safer or could any proposals be counter-productive,
and what might be the side-effects on the economy of current regulatory proposals?
Euroframe forecast - Economic Assessment of the Euro Area January 2012
Today sees the launch of the EUROFRAME Group’s latest report giving GDP and inflation projections for the euro area to 2013. The report also contains projections of key economic variables for the
major EU countries. It analyses the economic effects on the euro area of banking recapitalisation and financial uncertainty.
The EUROFRAME Group comprises ten of the most respected economic forecasting and research institutes in Europe: NIESR (United Kingdom), CASE (Poland), CPB (Netherlands), DIW Berlin (Germany), ESRI
(Ireland), ETLA (Finland), The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany), OFCE (France), PROMETEIA (Italy) and WIFO (Austria). They combine their knowledge in providing quantitative analysis,
forecasts and policy recommendations for the European Union and for national decision makers.
9th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union
The euro area in crisis: challenges for monetary and fiscal policies, and prospects for monetary union
Friday, 8 June 2012, Kiel, Germany
The EUROFRAME group of research institutes (CASE, CPB, DIW, ESRI, ETLA, IfW, NIESR, OFCE, PROMETEIA, WIFO) will hold its ninth annual Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union in Kiel on 8 June 2012. The aim of the conference is to provide an economic forum for debate on economic policy issues relevant in the European context.
The plan to increase core Tier 1 capital in banks was welcomed by Ray Barrell, Director of Macroeconomics at the National Institute. He said that the increase in capital would
reduce the risks of a banking crisis noticeably, as Institute research used by the Financial Stability Board had shown. Banking crises have depressing similar determinants in all
OECD countries, and stronger capital will reduce the risks. The other factors driving crises need to be addressed.
What are the effects of increases in taxes and cuts in spending
The OBR Report suggests that the government structural budget deficit will be around 3% of GDP in 2014-15 after implementing the cuts and tax increases proposed by the Labour government.
If in response the government progressively tightens fiscal policy by a further 3% of GDP over the next two years then growth will slow, but not by much. The more the cuts fall on spending
(not public sector wages but persons employed) the bigger the impact. These changes would be in addition to the 6 percent of GDP structural improvement that the last government had already
planned to be in place by 2014-5.
Dorsett, R., Metcalf, H. and Rolfe, H. with Bewley, H., Dhudwar, A., George, A. and Hopkin, R. - The Better-off in
Work Credit, Report of research carried out by the NIESR on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions
A common aim of regulatory proposals since 2008 has been a desire to avoid a
recurrence of the global financial crisis. Looking particularly at the UK regulatory system in the context of Basel III, this conference evaluates whether there has been progress towards “never again” –
a negligible risk of a costly future systemic crisis. Is the banking system already more robust, will current proposals make the system significantly safer or could any proposals be counter-productive,
and what might be the side-effects on the economy of current regulatory proposals?
The current issue of the National Institute Economic Review focuses on policy
evaluation, and was published on Friday, 3rd February 2012.
NiGEMWEB is the new web-based product designed to provide economists with the latest forecasts. More informations.
