Financial Stability Conference “NEVER AGAIN?”

nierA common aim of regulatory proposals since 2008 has been a desire to avoid a recurrence of the global financial crisis. Looking particularly at the UK regulatory system in the context of Basel III, this conference evaluates whether there has been progress towards “never again” – a negligible risk of a costly future systemic crisis. Is the banking system already more robust, will current proposals make the system significantly safer or could any proposals be counter-productive, and what might be the side-effects on the economy of current regulatory proposals?

National Institute Economic Review

nierThe current issue of the National Institute Economic Review focuses on policy evaluation, and was published on Friday, 3rd February 2012.

The next issue of the National Institute Economic Review will be published by the end of April 2012.

The full version is available by contacting Sage Publications at http://ner.sagepub.com./.

Press Releases

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  • NIESR - UK and World economy forecast by Kirby, S. and Holland, D. /03.02.2012/
  • NIESR publishes research on Scotland's fiscal and currency choices by Armstrong, A. /03.02.2012/
  • Beyond vickers: NIESR proposes alternative approaches to bank regulation by Armstrong, A. /03.02.2012/
  • New policies needed if government is to meet its objective to improve social mobility by LLAKES and NIESR /24.01.2012/
  • EUROFRAME - Economic Assessment of the Euro Area - January 2012 by Holland, D. and Kirby, S. /18.01.2012/
  • January 2012 GDP estimates by Kirby, S. /12.01.2012/
  • Minimal impact of migration on education and public services – new NIESR report by Metcalf, H. and Portes, J./10.01.2012/
  • Migration and Unemployment by Lucchino, P. and Portes, J./09.01.2012/
  • December 2011 GDP estimates by Kirby, S. /07.12.2011/
  • NIESR Evidence to the Treasury Committee on the OBR Forecast and the Autumn Statement by Portes, J. /05.12.2011/
  • INTRODUCTION OF JOBCENTRE PLUS INCREASED EMPLOYMENT AND BENEFITED THE EXCHEQUER by Riley, R. /30.11.2011/
  • The Autumn Statement and the OBR’s forecasts by Portes, J. and Kirby, S. /29.11.2011/
  • November 2011 GDP estimates by Kirby, S. /08.11.2011/
  • NIESR CALLS FOR FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO OWNERSHIP AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE OF BRITISH BANKS by Dr Armstrong, A. /02.11.2011/
  • NIESR RESEARCH EXPLORES DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE RESOLUTION OF THE EUROZONE CRISIS by Holland, D. and Kirby, S. /02.11.2011/
  • GDP Estimates

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  • View January 2012 GDP estimates, released 12th January 2012.
  • NIESR's GDP estimates subscription service.
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    Euroframe forecast - Economic Assessment of the Euro Area January 2012

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    Today sees the launch of the EUROFRAME Group’s latest report giving GDP and inflation projections for the euro area to 2013. The report also contains projections of key economic variables for the major EU countries. It analyses the economic effects on the euro area of banking recapitalisation and financial uncertainty.

  • Link to press release
  • Link to report
  • The EUROFRAME Group comprises ten of the most respected economic forecasting and research institutes in Europe: NIESR (United Kingdom), CASE (Poland), CPB (Netherlands), DIW Berlin (Germany), ESRI (Ireland), ETLA (Finland), The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany), OFCE (France), PROMETEIA (Italy) and WIFO (Austria). They combine their knowledge in providing quantitative analysis, forecasts and policy recommendations for the European Union and for national decision makers.

    Forthcoming Events

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  • Financial Stability Conference “NEVER AGAIN?”
  • Seminar "Policy evaluation in a time of austerity"
  • CEO Compensation, Firm Governance and Firm Performance
    Evidence from China and Policy Implications
  • NIESR Employment Seminar Series
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    Economic Assessment of the Euro Area

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    Call for papers

    9th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union

    The euro area in crisis: challenges for monetary and fiscal policies, and prospects for monetary union

    Friday, 8 June 2012, Kiel, Germany

    The EUROFRAME group of research institutes (CASE, CPB, DIW, ESRI, ETLA, IfW, NIESR, OFCE, PROMETEIA, WIFO) will hold its ninth annual Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union in Kiel on 8 June 2012. The aim of the conference is to provide an economic forum for debate on economic policy issues relevant in the European context.

    NIESR Welcomes Plan to Increase Capital in Banks

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    The plan to increase core Tier 1 capital in banks was welcomed by Ray Barrell, Director of Macroeconomics at the National Institute. He said that the increase in capital would reduce the risks of a banking crisis noticeably, as Institute research used by the Financial Stability Board had shown. Banking crises have depressing similar determinants in all OECD countries, and stronger capital will reduce the risks. The other factors driving crises need to be addressed.

    What are the effects of increases in taxes and cuts in spending

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    The OBR Report suggests that the government structural budget deficit will be around 3% of GDP in 2014-15 after implementing the cuts and tax increases proposed by the Labour government. If in response the government progressively tightens fiscal policy by a further 3% of GDP over the next two years then growth will slow, but not by much. The more the cuts fall on spending (not public sector wages but persons employed) the bigger the impact. These changes would be in addition to the 6 percent of GDP structural improvement that the last government had already planned to be in place by 2014-5.

    Latest Discussion Papers

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  • Lucchino, P., Rosazza-Bondibene, C. and Portes, J. - Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data, NIESR Dp no. 386
  • van de Ven, J. - A Structural Dynamic Microsimulation Model of Household Savings and Labour Supply, NIESR Dp no. 385
  • Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M. - Mortality in the British Panel Household Survey: a Test of a Standard Treatment for Non-Response, NIESR Dp no. 384
  • Lui, S., Weale, M. - Education and its Effects on the Income, Health and Survival of those aged Sixty-five and Over, NIESR Dp no. 383
  • Addison, J. T., Teixeira, P. and Pahnke, A. - Change and Persistence in the German Model of Collective Bargaining and Worker Representation, NIESR Dp no. 382
  • Bryson, A., White, M. - HRM and Workplace Motivation: Incremental and Threshold Effects, NIESR Dp no. 381
  • Bryson, A., Bockerman, P. and Ilmakunnas, P. - Does High Involvement Management Improve Worker Wellbeing?, NIESR Dp no. 380
  • Holland, D., Fic, T. and Paluchowski, P. - Labour mobility within the EU, NIESR Dp no. 379
  • Riley, R., Wilkinson, D., and Dickens, R.- The UK Minimum Wage at Age 22: A Regression Discontinuity Approach, NIESR Dp no. 378
  • McCarthy, D., Sefton, J. and Weale, M. - Generational Accounts for the United Kingdom, NIESR Dp no. 377
  • Bryson, A., Bockerman, P. and Ilmakunnas, P. - Does High Involvement Management Lead to Higher Pay?, NIESR Dp no. 376
  • Barrell, R., Davis, E. P., Fic, T. and Karim, D. - TIER 2 Capital and Bank Behaviour, NIESR Dp no. 375
  • Latest Publications

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  • Rincon-Aznar, A., Oulton, N. - Rates of return and alternative measures of capital input:14 countries and ten branches, 1971–2005, ndustrial Productivity in Europe: Growth and Crisis , Publisher: Edward Elgar, Cheltenham , pp. 307-336
  • Riley, R., Bewley, H., Kirby, S., Rincon-Aznar, A., George, A. - The introduction of Jobcentre Plus: An evaluation of labour market impacts, Department for Work and Pensions, Research Report No 781
  • Taylor, C. T. - A Macroeconomic Regime for the 21st Century: Towards a New Economic Order, Routledge Economics
  • Mason, G and Hopkin, R. - Employer Perspectives on Part-time Students in UK Higher Education, Research Report 27, Department of Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS)
  • Rolfe, H. - Learning to Take Risks, Learning to Succeed, Report to NESTA
  • Hopkin, R., Stokes, L. and Wilkinson, D. - Quality, Outcomes and Costs in Education, Report to Office for National Statistics
  • Hopkin, R., Callender, C. and Wilkinson, D. - Career decision making and career development of part-time higher education students, Report to Higher Education Careers Services Unit
  • Mason, G. and Bishop, K - Adult Training, Skills Updating and Recession in the UK: The Implications for Competitiveness and Social Inclusion, published by the Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies
  • Dorsett, R., Metcalf, H. and Rolfe, H. with Bewley, H., Dhudwar, A., George, A. and Hopkin, R. - The Better-off in Work Credit, Report of research carried out by the NIESR on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions
  • NiGEMWEB

    nigemweb NiGEMWEB is the new web-based product designed to provide economists with the latest forecasts. More informations.