June 2014 GDP estimates
Our monthly estimates of
Note: NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 9th May 2014) projects
Figure 1. The profile of recession and recovery
Notes: Calculated from centred three-month moving averages of monthly
The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.
Our track record in producing early estimates of
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal:
Mitchell, J. Smith, R. J., Weale, M. R., Wright, S. and Salazar, E. L. (2005) ‘An Indicator of Monthly
Available from: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1468-0297
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data for the inter-war period was published in the October 2012 volume of Explorations in Economic History:
Mitchell, J., Solomou, S. and Weale, M. (2012) ‘Monthly
From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has caused us some problems in estimating
For more information please telephone NIESR on 020 7222 7665.
Contents of Press Release
Table 1, Page 3: Summary Table of Quarterly Growth Rates showing Monthly Data, 3 months ending in that month, and Quarterly Growth (% per quarter). All contain Figures for Industry & GDP.
Table 2, Page 4: Output by Sector (Industry, Agriculture, Construction, Private Services, Public Services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
Table 3, Page 5: Output in Quarter Ending in Month Shown by sector (as above)
Table 4, Page 6: Growth in Quarter Ending in Month Shown over Previous Quarter (% at Annual Rate) by sector (as above)