June 2015 GDP Estimate

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in April 2015. These estimates are consistent with a rebound of economic growth in the second quarter of this year. For the year as a whole, we forecast GDP growth of 2.5 per cent per annum*. We continue to expect the MPC to start raising interest rates in the first quarter of 2016.

* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 6th May 2015) projects GDP growth of 2.5 per cent per annum in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016 (see http://niesr.ac.uk/media for the associated press release).