June 2016 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in May 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in April 2016.

James Warren, Research Fellow at NIESR, said “A rebound of production sector output in has supported reasonable GDP growth in the three months to May 2016. Despite this pick up, the production sector remains 9.2 per cent below its pre-recession peak at the beginning of 2008. Our estimates imply that growth so far in 2016 has remained relatively subdued. In our latest quarterly forecast we expect acceleration in the second half of 2016*. However, there remain specific uncertainties around the near term outlook for the economy, most notably the outcome of the impending referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.”

*See here for press release published 10th May.