The long-term economic impact of leaving the EU

Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Publication date: 10 May 2016 | Theme: Macroeconomics | NIESR Author(s): Monique Ebell; James Warren | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 236 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London

The aim of this paper is to analyse the long-term implications of leaving the EU for the UK economy. To do this, we consider three main channels by which the UK economy could be affected in the long run:

1) Reductions in trade with EU countries and a modest increase in tariff barriers.

2) A reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly affecting services FDI.

3) A reduction in the UK’s net fiscal contribution to the EU.

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