National Evaluation of the Troubled Families Programme: National Impact Study Report

The purpose of the analysis upon which this report is based was to estimate the impact of participation in the initial phase of the Troubled Families programme on a range of outcomes encompassing benefit receipt, employment, educational participation, child welfare and offending. This analysis estimates the impact of programme participation on these outcomes, relative to non-participation. That is, the findings that overall participation in the programme had no significant or systemic impact does not mean that there were no changes in the relevant outcomes for families; simply that any changes (positive or negative) cannot be attributed to participation in the programme, because similar changes were observed for comparable non-participants. In other words, participation in the programme did not in itself result in or cause any change in outcomes. This applies to all impact estimates described below. This report should be read alongside the separate and independent analysis of the impact of participation in the Troubled Families programme using survey data.¹ This analysis, which uses administrative data, is consistent with the analysis of the survey data.

¹Evaluation of the Troubled Familied Programme, “Impact evaluation using survey data”, Susan Purdon and Caroline Bryson.