Recent Developments in Uncertainty Measures

Abstract:

We describe the evolution of various measures of uncertainty in the lead up to and following the UK’s referendum and develop our own composite index to estimate the level of uncertainty in the UK economy. We will continue to refine our estimates and also use these measures to underpin our view of the impact of uncertainty on key economic variables.

NiGEM Observations is a series of occasional notes published by the NiGEM team on topical macroeconomic modelling issues for NIESR corporate sponsors and NiGEM subscribers.