Macroeconomics and Forecasting

sk The Primary tool for macro-modelling at NIESR is the National Institute's Global Econometric model, NiGEM, which has been developed by the Institute since the 1980's for both internal use and a growing body of external modellers from both the public and commercial sectors. The model has been continually expanded and updated throughout it's lifetime in line with user interest and developments in economics.

The model is used internally in the Institute quarterly forecast published in the Review. Externally, it is used by a group of 50 model subscribers, mainly in the policy community, including the ECB, IMF, the central banks of the UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, Portugal and Sweden, and a number of finance ministries as well as the ESRI in Japan. These bodies regularly use the model in their publications. Usage both in the Institute and outside it is divided about equally between forecast related tasks and policy analysis. The model framework can be used by any user to build a bespoke model or to change the existing structure.

NiGEM is an estimated, theoretically coherent forward-looking model, where nominal rigidities slow the process of adjustment to external events. The model is designed as a tool for both practical forecasting and for academically defensible policy analysis. It covers all OECD countries, including models for Mexico, South Korea, China, Russia, Hong-Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, Australia and New Zealand. Group models for Latin America, Africa, East Asia and Developing Europe and OPEC are also available.

Link to NiGEMWEB


Contact

Ian Hurst - NiGEM enquiries

Dawn Holland - World Forecast

Simon Kirby - UK Forecast

Ray Barrell - Head of the World Macro Team

Monthly GDP Estimates

NIESR uses statistical projection techniques to project UK GDP one month ahead, giving NIESR's highly respected monthly UK GDP estimates. We also estimate economic growth in the three months ending in the month just ended. This means that each calendar quarter an estimate of quarterly growth is produced about 3 weeks ahead of the Office for National Statistics.


Contact

Martin Weale

Link to Monthly GDP Estimates