| National Institute Economic Review Articles
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Mitchell, J., (Oct 2009),
Confidence and leading indicators: introduction
, No. 210,
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Mitchell, J., Holmes, M.J., Silverstone, B., (Oct 2009),
Architects as nowcasters of housing construction
, National Institute Economic Review, No. No. 210, pp 111-122.,
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Mitchell, J., (Jul 2009),
Where are we now? The UK recession and nowcasting
, No. 209,
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Mitchell, J., (Jan 2008),
Recent Developments In Economic Forecasting
, No. 203, pp. 57-58
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Kirby, S., Mitchell, J., (Jul 2006),
Prudence and UK trend growth
, National Institute Economic Review, No. 197, pp. 58-64
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Mitchell, J., (Jul 2005),
The National Institute Density Forecasts of Inflation
, National Institute Economic Review, No. 193, pp. 60-69
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Massmann, M., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Jan 2003),
Business cycles and turning points: a survey of statistical techniques
, National Institute Economic Review, No. 183, pp. 90-106
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Massmann, M., Mitchell, J., (Oct 2002),
Have UK and Eurozone business cycles become more correlated?
, National Institute Economic Review, No. 182, pp. 58-71
JOURNAL ARTICLES
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Khoman, E., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (2008),
Incidence-based Estimates of Healthy Life Expectancy for the United Kingdom: Coherence between Transition Probabilities and Aggregate Life Tables, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Vol. 171, pp. 203-222
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Hall, S., Mitchell, J., (2007),
Combining Density Forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, pp. 1-13
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Mitchell, J., Mouratidis, K., Weale, M., (2007),
Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data, Economics Letters, Vol. 94, pp. 245-252
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., Stephen Wright and Eduardo Salazar, (2005),
An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of quarterly GDP, Economic Journal, Vol. 115, pp. 108-129
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Mitchell, J., Hall, S., (2005),
Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, pp. 995-1033
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (2005),
Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data, The Manchester School, Vol. 73, pp. 479-499
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Massmann, M., Mitchell, J., (2004),
Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 1, pp. 275-307
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (2002),
Quantification of qualitative firm-level survey data, Economic Journal, Vol. 112, pp. 117-135
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Mitchell, J., (2002),
The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data, Economics Letters, Vol. 76, pp. 101-107
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Mitchell, J., Jore, A.S., Vahey, S.P., (forthcoming),
Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities, Journal of Applied Econometrics
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Mitchell, J., Matheson, TD. and Silverstone, B., (forthcoming),
Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data, Journal of Forecasting
BOOKS/CHAPTERS IN BOOKS
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Barrell, R., Hurst, I., Mitchell, J., (2009), Uncertainty bounds for cyclically adjusted budget balances,
Fiscal Policy Making in the European Union: an assessment of current practice and challenges, Routledge, Oxford,
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Hall, S., Mitchell, J., (2009), Recent developments in density forecasting,
Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics, Palgrave, Basingstoke,
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Mitchell, J., (2007), Density Estimates for Real-time Eurozone Output Gap Estimates,
Growth and Cycle in the Eurozone, Palgrave, Basingstoke,
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Mitchell, J., Mouratidis, K., (2004), Is there a common Euro-zone business cycle?,
Monographs of Official Statistics: Papers and Proceedings of the third Eurostat Colloquium on modern,
DISCUSSION PAPERS
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., Solomou, S., (Nov 2009),
Monthly and quarterly GDP estimates for interwar Britain,
Dp. 348
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Oct 2009),
The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys,
Dp. 343
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Mitchell, J., Garratt, A., Vahey, S.P., (Oct 2009),
Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty,
Dp. 342
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Mitchell, J., Bache, I.W., Ravazzolo, F., Vahey, S.P., (Aug 2009),
Macro Modelling with Many Models,
Dp. 337
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Mar 2009),
Collective Sentiment in Qualitative Business Surveys,
Dp. 328
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Sep 2008),
Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?,
Dp. 323
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Mitchell, J., Wallis, K.F., (Aug 2008),
Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness,
Dp. 320
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Mitchell, J., Jore, A. S., Vahey, S. P., (Jan 2008),
Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities,
Dp. 303
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Mitchell, J., (Aug 2007),
Constructing bivariate density forecasts of inflation and output growth using copulae: modelling dependence using the Survey of Professional Forecasters,
Dp. 297
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Mitchell, J., (Jul 2007),
Understanding revisions to density forecasts: an application to the Survey of Professional Forecasters,
Dp. 296
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Feb 2007),
The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey,
Dp. 287
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Jan 2007),
Qualitative Expectational Data as Predictors of Income and Consumption Growth: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey,
Dp. 286
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Mitchell, J., Mouratidis, K., Weale, M., (Dec 2005),
Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data,
Dp. 266
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Mitchell, J., Mouratidis, K., Weale, M., (Nov 2005),
Poverty and Debt,
Dp. 263
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (Jan 2006),
A Bayesian Indicator of Manufacturing Output from Qualitative Business Panel Survey Data,
Dp. 261
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Mitchell, J., Hall, S., (Mar 2005),
Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR ‘fan’ charts of inflation,
Dp. 253
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (Jan 2005),
Forecasting manufacturing output growth using firm-level survey data,
Dp. 251
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Hall, S., Mitchell, J., (Nov 2004),
Density Forecast Combination,
Dp. 249
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Hall, S., Mitchell, J., (Nov 2004),
Optimal combination of density forecasts,
Dp. 248
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Mitchell, J., (Nov 2003),
Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for,
Dp. 225
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Mitchell, J., Pain, N., (May 2003),
The Determinants of International Migration into the UK: A Panel Based Modelling Approach,
Dp. 216
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Massmann, M., Mitchell, J., (Mar 2003),
Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Eurozone Business Cycles Converging?,
Dp. 210
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (Mar 2002),
Aggregate versus Disaggregate Survey-Based Indicators of Economic Activity (revised January 2005),
Dp. 194
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (Jan 2001),
Quantification of qualitative firm-level survey data,
Dp. 181
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Mitchell, J., (Sep 2000),
The importance of long run structure for impulse response analysis in VAR models,
Dp. 172
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Kapetanios, G., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Aug 2000),
Cointegrating VAR models with endogenous I(0) variables: theoretical extensions and an application to UK monetary policy,
Dp. 169
REPORTS
CONFERENCE/SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
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Mitchell, J., (Dec 2009),
The Euro-area recession and nowcasting GDP growth using statistical models, UN/Eurostat International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators, Scheveningen, The Netherlands
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Mitchell, J., Garratt, A., Vahey, S.P., (Nov 2009),
Measuring output gap uncertainty, Seminar, Economics Department, Sheffield University (25 Nov 2009)
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Oct 2009),
Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?, Statistical and Economic Workshop, ONS, Newport (27th October 2009)
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Mitchell, J., Garratt, A., Vahey, S.P., (Oct 2009),
Measuring output gap uncertainty, Seminar, ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Apr 2009),
Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?, Presented at Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2009, University of Surrey
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Mar 2009),
Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?, Presentation at 1st Macroeconomic Forecasting Conference, ISAE, Rome. Conference co-hosted by ISAE, INSEE and IFO
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Mitchell, J., Bache, I.W., Jore, A.S. and Vahey, S.P., (Mar 2009),
Combining VAR and DSGE Forecast Densities, Forecasting and monetary policy conference, Bundesbank, Berlin (23-24 March 2009)
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Mitchell, J., Wallis, K.F., (Dec 2008),
Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness, RBNZ and BIS "Nowcasting with model combination workshop", Reserve Bank of New Zealand (11-12 December 2008)
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Sep 2008),
Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?, Presented at the Money, Macro and Finance Group 40th Annual Conference, Birkbeck College, London University (10-12 September 2008); Bank of England seminar (14 November 2008)
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Mitchell, J., Jore, A. S., Vahey, S. P., (Jun 2008),
Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities, 3rd Annual CIRANO Workshop on Data Revision in Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy, Montreal, Canada (5-6 October 2007); 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Nice, France (22-25 June 2008); Eurostat 5th Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis, Luxembourg (29 September – 1 October 2008)
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Mitchell, J., Mouratidis, K., Weale, M., (Jun 2008),
Flash and Factor-based Nowcasts of Euro-Area GDP Growth, 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Nice, France (22-25 June 2008)
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Mitchell, J., A.S. Jore and S.P. Vahey, (May 2008),
Combining fan-charts: improving real-time forecasts for US inflation and output growth, Economics Seminar, Leeds University (14 May, 2008)
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (May 2008),
Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?, Presentation at the ONS's National Statistics Methodology Advisory Committee (NSMAC), ONS, London (13 May 2008)
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Mitchell, J., (Apr 2008),
Flash estimates, 4th meeting of the network on "Flash estimates of certain PEEIs", Eurostat, Luxembourg (22nd April, 2008)
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Lui, S., Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Mar 2008),
Business surveys: signal or noise?, Seminar organised as part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science 2008. Confederation of British Industry, London (10 March 2008)
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Mitchell, J., Jore, A. S., Vahey, S. P., (Mar 2008),
Combining fan-charts: improving real-time forecasts for US inflation and output growth, Seminar, School of Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London (6 March 2008)
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Jun 2007),
The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey, Joint Deutsche Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Conference 2007: “Monetary policy strategy: Old issues and new challenges”, Frankfurt, 7 June 2007
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Mitchell, J., (Jun 2007),
Averaging density forecasts from VARs with real-time US data, Norges Bank Workshop on Prediction and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Model Uncertainty, Norges Bank, Oslo, 1 June 2007
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Mitchell, J., (Apr 2007),
Understanding revisions to density forecasts: an application to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Econometrics Workshop Warwick
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Mitchell, J., (Apr 2007),
Nowcasting, Seminar, HMT
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Dec 2006),
Flash Estimates of some PEEIs, Euroindicators Working Group. Eurostat. Luxembourg
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Dec 2006),
Alternative Trend-cycle Decompositions, Euroindicators Working Group. Eurostat. Luxembourg
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Mitchell, J., (Dec 2006),
Density forecasting: combination and dependence, Seminar (4th December 2006), Norges Bank, Oslo, Norway
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Barrell, R., Hurst, I., Mitchell, J., (Sep 2006),
Uncertainty bounds for cyclically adjusted budget deficits, Workshop on Fiscal indicators in the EU budgetary surveillance organised by the European Commission (DG-ECFIN), Brussels, 22 September 2006
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (Apr 2006),
A Bayesian Indicator of Manufacturing Output from Qualitative Business Panel Survey Data, Royal Economic Society Conference. Nottingham. See Discussion Paper No. 261
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Hall, S., Mitchell, J., (Mar 2006),
Optimal combination of density forecasts, The interface between monetary policy and macro modelling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 13-15 March 2006
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Mitchell, J., Smith, R., Weale, M., (Mar 2006),
A Bayesian Indicator of Manufacturing Output from Qualitative Business Panel Survey Data, Presented at H.M. Treasury, London (7th March 2006) and at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand (30th March 2006)
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Sep 2005),
Deriving efficient early estimates of official data from firm-level qualitative panel survey data, ONS Analysis of Enterprise Microdata 2005 CAED/BDL Annual Conference, Cardiff, September 2005
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Hall, S., Mitchell, J., (Jul 2005),
Density Forecast Combination, Plenary Session, African Econometric Society Annual Conference, Kenya, 6-8 July 2005
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Mitchell, J., (Jun 2005),
Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro-area, Society of Computational Economics 11th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Washington DC, June 23-25 2005
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Apr 2005),
A monthly indicator of GDP for the Euro area: an application of the regression approach to interpolation, Invited Lecture, Workshop on frontiers in benchmarking techniques and their application to official statistics. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 7-8 April 2005
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Mitchell, J., (Feb 2005),
Evaluating forecast uncertainty, European Commission’s Euroframe 'European Forecasting Network' meeting, 10 February 2005, London
MEDIA INTERVIEWS (TV & RADIO) AND NEWSPAPER ARTICLES
NIESR PRESS RELEASES
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Weale, M., Barrell, R., Holland, D., Mitchell, J., Pomerantz, O., Juselius, J., (Jan 2008),
January issue of Economic Review
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Mitchell, J., (Jul 2007),
June 2007 Estimates of Monthly GDP
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Mitchell, J., (Jul 2007),
June 2007 Estimates of Monthly GDP
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Mitchell, J., (Jan 2007),
December 2006 Estimates of Monthly GDP
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Jan 2007),
Consumer confidence: best not to look at it
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Weale, M., Mitchell, J., (Sep 2006),
August 2006 Estimates of Monthly GDP
OTHER ACTIVITIES
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Mitchell, J., (Dec 2009),
The Euro-area recession and nowcasting GDP growth using statistical models
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Kirby, S., Mitchell, J., Riley, R., (Mar 2008),
Memorandum in The Economic Impact of Immigration, Select Committee on Economic Affairs, House of Lords, HL Paper 82-II
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Kirby, S., Mitchell, J., Riley, R., (Nov 2007),
Evidence to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee Inquiry into the Economic Impact of Migration
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Mitchell, J., Weale, M., (Dec 2006),
Alternative Trend-cycle Decompositions
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