About monthly GDP Estimates
Macro-economic policy-making in real time faces the perennial problem of uncovering what is actually happening to the economy. To address this problem NIESR uses statistical techniques to estimate a series for UK GDP. We also estimate economic growth in the three months ending in the month just ended. This means that each calendar quarter an estimate of quarterly growth is produced about 3 weeks ahead of the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) preliminary estimate of GDP. The model is used internally in the Institute quarterly forecast published in the National Institute Economic Review (click here for details on subscription to the Review). Externally, it is used by a group of subscribers. Subscription information can be found via the menu link on the left.
Four summary tables are available, as well as a full monthly set of time series:
- Table 1: Summary table of quarterly growth rates showing monthly data, 3 months ending in that month, and quarterly growth (% per quarter). All contain figures for industry & GDP.
- Table 2: Output by sector (industry, agriculture, construction, private services, public services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
- Table 3: Output in quarter ending in month shown by sector (as above)
- Table 4: Growth in quarter ending in month shown over previous quarter (% at annual rate) by sector (as above)
See below for the latest copy of the release.
The data are always consistent with the latest official data. The chart below shows a comparison of NIESR estimates of quarterly growth with the ONS preliminary estimates (produced 3 weeks later). This validates our approach.
Figure 1. Estimate of quarterly GDP growth, sample period 1999Q3 to 2016Q4.
Notes: ONS data refers to the preliminary estimate of GDP release from the ONS. ONS estimates extracted from the ONS GDP triangle, with corrections to errors spotted. NIESR refers to the NIESR estimate of GDP growth in the calendar quarter produced prior to the respective preliminary estimate of GDP release.
Monthly GDP Estimates Methodology
Click here for a paper describing the methodology used to produce the data.