Blog

The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Arno Hantzsche

Amit Kara

Posted: 16 February, 2018 - 12:41 with: Comments
Recent leaks of a Brexit impact study produced for the Department for Exiting the EU have reignited the debate about the costs of leaving the EU without a comprehensive trade agreement. The reported magnitude of estimated aggregate effects for such a ‘no-deal’ scenario is very similar to estimates published independently from each other prior to the Brexit referendum and also in line with updated work presented in our latest National Institute Economic Review: a loss in annual GDP relative to what it would otherwise have been of 7 to 8 per cent within the next 10 years. Put differently, annual income per head would be up to £2,000 less, compared to a scenario in which the UK remains in the EU’s single market. What remains less clear in the debate is how these numbers came about, leaving room for political attack. This blog explains the assumptions behind our analysis.   

Amit Kara

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 13 February, 2018 - 18:06 with: Comments
The Prime Minister and four of her senior cabinet colleagues will in a series of speeches over the next few days set out a vision for the UK after Brexit. Those speeches will likely reiterate the government’s official goal of ‘free and frictionless’ trade with the EU. Less clear are the concessions that the UK is prepared to make to achieve this objective. In this blog we explore the likely trade-offs from the prism of a simple schematic and focus on three key areas of negotiation - market access, labour movement and budgetary contribution. There is no magic formula and the decision is ultimately political.  With that in mind, the PM and her colleagues should spell the priorities on each of these three dimensions in the forthcoming speeches.

Prof Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 6 February, 2018 - 17:47 with: Comments
As we have pointed out in recent editions of NIESR’s Economic Review the UK economy is showing signs of a divergence, with growth slowing here alongside growing evidence of a sustained recovery in the rest of the World. The Referendum result and consequent uncertainty over the exact form of future trading relationships imparts two substantive effects. First, it tends to reduce expected trade in goods, capital, labour and services with the EU. Secondly, the uncertainty over future trading relationships will tend to lead to a delay in domestic investment or a diversion internationally to more certain destinations overseas.

Dr Heather Rolfe

Posted: 5 February, 2018 - 13:19 with: Comments
The National Minimum Wage (NMW) has been operating since 1999, with the objective of combating exploitative pay, and the National Living Wage (NLW) since 2016 to raise wage levels more widely for workers aged 25 and over.

Professor Alex Bryson

David Wilkinson

Lucy Stokes

Posted: 4 February, 2018 - 00:00 with: Comments
The government’s strategy for improving educational outcomes focuses on improving schools’ performance.  But how important are schools in explaining variance in pupil attainment? There is surprisingly little evidence on the issue.  We sought to address this question in an article for the February 2018 edition of the National Institute Economic Review, examining the attainment of half a million pupils in more than 3,000 English secondary schools over the period 2009/10 to 2015/16. 

Prof Francis Green

Professor Alex Bryson

Posted: 1 February, 2018 - 07:58 with: Comments
In recent years governments of all hues have urged private schools to sponsor state schools to help raise education standards in state schools. In 2012 Lord Adonis, who had earlier been Labour’s Minister for Schools, argued that successful private schools, whose “DNA” incorporated “independence, excellence, innovation, social mission”, should sponsor state academy schools.