Blog: January 2016

Posted: 23 January, 2016 - 16:03

The Grand Old Duke of York had nothing on the Prime Minister’s European “renegotiation”.  The Prime Minister floated an “emergency brake” on free movement more than a year ago. But the proposal was quickly ditched, because, as the Financial Times said, the rules are supposed to deal with situations such as acts of war or volcanic eruptions, not the movement of fruit pickers from eastern Europe.

Posted: 18 January, 2016 - 14:33

Two months ago the Prime Minister claimed that “around 40 percent of all recent European Economic Area migrants are supported by the UK benefits system.”  It was immediately obvious that this number was cooked up in Number 10, not by a statistician but rather by special advisers.  The UK Statistics Authority forced DWP to publish, very hastily, a deeply unconvincing post-hoc

Posted: 17 January, 2016 - 16:29

The publication of a new paper on the impact of immigration to the UK on wages was pounced on by some sections of the media. The Telegraph wrote:

Mass migration is driving down the wages being offered to British jobseekers, a major report by the Bank of England has found.

Posted: 10 January, 2016 - 18:18

If Britain votes to leave the EU it will be because of hostility to immigration: that is the conclusion both of the UK press (from the Sun to the Financial Times) and of the political scientists who spoke at NIESR’s recent conference on the topic.

Posted: 3 January, 2016 - 19:02

The Financial Times (£; free reg) has just published its annual survey of UK economists’ views of prospects for the year ahead.  As ever, before looking at what we think might happen this year, it’s worth looking at what we said last year.  My answers in full from last year are here.  The headline one on growth was this: