Blog: May 2016
In recent weeks there have been a number of high-profile reports on the economic consequences of a vote to leave the European Union. Among others, the OECD, HM Treasury and we, at the National Institute, have all now published estimates of what the economic landscape might look like in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote on June 23rd. ¹ NIESR’s analysis of the short and long-run impact can be found here, Baker et al (2016).
Last week's ONS publication on migration statistics threw some light on the debate, although they generated even more heat – and frankly some flat out lies, as I explained here. However, this Wednesday, we'll get a different set of numbers; this will focus not on how many migrants are entering or leaving the country, short or long-term but how many actually live and work here – which is after all most of what matters.
A vote to leave the EU would represent a significant shock to the UK economy. In this piece, we analyse the consequences for the UK economy of leaving the EU, assuming that the UK would no longer have a free trade agreement with the EU.