Blog: December 2016
Christmas is here and being marked in the British way by excessive consumption of food and drink, harvested, processed, delivered and served thanks to the labour of migrant workers.
We are asked to consider what has caused this year's revolt against the conventional wisdom that liberal capitalism is the best way to guarantee economic welfare. It is too early to account for all the reasons. But a primary candidate is the continuing inability of the economy to generate median real wage growth
After the UK referendum and the US presidential election result, there were significant movements in asset prices. Notably in the UK, the exchange rate fell by some 15% and, surprisingly in the immediate aftermath, term premia also fell by some 20Bp. But following the recent Italian referendum result and the announcement of the resignation of the Italian Prime Minister on December 4, although Italian term premia have been volatile, there has been little overall change in premia. For example, the two day change in term premia from 5 to 7 December was around 2Bp. I suggest that one reason for the relative stability is the ECB's QE programme which is providing support for bond prices with respect to changes in risk.
Economic forecasters ought to be thankful for pollsters otherwise they might look very bad indeed. The story often told is that a recession was forecast in the event of a vote to leave the European Union and because there has been no recession, economic forecasters have let us down. This story is not quite the truth
As far back as August I predicted that Brexit (among other factors) would lead to a sharp fall in EU migration. There are tentative - but only that - signs of that in today’s data – although it’s very early days yet.