Blog: August 2017
This is week four of my posts featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.
Economic forecasts were roundly criticised for exaggerating the fallout from the EU referendum last year. As it turned out, the economy did outperform many forecasts in the period that immediately followed the referendum, but that has changed quite markedly this year as household incomes are squeezed by high inflation and economic growth has consequently slowed. Was the criticism fair?
In a piece released this week , Patrick Minford and his co-author argue that the UK should unilaterally reduce trade barriers, because this would lower import prices. Moreover, by subjecting UK producers to unfettered competition from abroad, UK food growers and manufacturers would be forced to become more competitive, further lowering prices for UK consumers.
If most of the latest report by Patrick Minford, of Economists for Free Trade, on Britain’s future prospects post-Brexit sounds too good to be true, it’s because it probably is.
This is my third memo featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.
The Bank of England is proud of its independence, which since 1997 has allowed it to determine, without interference, the prevailing level of short-term interest rates in pursuit of price stability. Since 2009, it has, however, changed interest rates only once.
In its August Review, NIESR revised its forecast for GDP growth in the Euro Area in 2017 up to 2.0 per cent from 1.6 per cent projected in May. The Review also noted that the recent significant strengthening of growth in the Area had been accompanied by a smaller divergence of growth performance among member countries than seen in most of the period since the euro was introduced.
This is the second of my posts on the conference: Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy, held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th. I feature two papers written by officials from the Federal Reserve System.
The 9th August 2007, the illiquidity of financial markets where derivatives linked to subprime mortgages were traded lead BNP Paribas to suspend three of its funds involved in those trades. This decision struck financial markets and lead to the public acknowledgement that a financial crisis was taking place.
This is the first of a new weekly blog series, Monday’s Macro Memo with Roger Farmer, which will discuss a wide range of economic issues of the day.
Recently NIESR raised its forecast for global output growth in 2017, to 3.6 from 3.3 per cent, mainly because of stronger than expected data on recent economic activity in a number of advanced and emerging market economies.
In the decade since the onset of the financial crisis, the disappointing recovery has sparked renewed concern about the medium-run outlook for advanced economies. Rather than returning to the pre-crisis trend, output has continued to diverge from it.
Newly-qualified doctors are required to swear the Hippocratic Oath before they can practice. Should members of the Monetary Policy Committee not do likewise? Doctors need to have some idea of how the body works, but they know that there is a lot they don’t know, and they need to be wise and humble enough to know the limits of their understanding.