Blog: April 2019
Now that we are well into in the last year of this decade, it seems like a good moment to take stock of what has happened to global economic growth in the second decade of this century. Given all the change this decade has seen, it comes as a surprise to find that the average annual rate of global economic growth over the decade has been similar to that of the previous decade. And it may be even more of a surprise to learn that the year-on-year variation in annual global GDP growth has been very small.
The immigration debate continues to be dominated by arguments for and against freedom of movement, but what does immigration means for our schools and what are schools doing to promote integration? Our new research funded by the Paul Hamlyn Foundation on integration of new migrant students and their families, has collected evidence on what schools around England are doing to facilitate integration by creating a welcoming and inclusive environment and improving the performance of pupils.
At this week’s meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to adjust the monetary policy stance substantially. Our latest economic forecast published last week suggests that the MPC should wait until the middle of next year before lifting Bank Rate above its current level of 0.75 per cent. This is because even though a soft Brexit seems more likely now it is offset by a weaker outlook for global demand and chronic levels of uncertainty at home.
Free movement has been at the heart of the Brexit debate. The government are in a tricky situation; grappling between a public which is assumed to want free movement to end, and businesses decrying demands for flexible migrant labour. In a labour market that relies on EU labour in sectors such as retail, hospitality and social care, the end of free movement raises major questions as to how labour market shortages will be filled.
“We can control immigration and have a system which welcomes people to the UK based on the skills they have, not the passports they hold”. This was one of the key points in the Vote Leave campaign literature almost three years ago. Two years later, the 2018 Immigration White Paper adopted this message. The foreword written by the Prime Minister reads: “This will be a system where it is workers’ skills that matter, not which country they come from”.
It is workers’ skills that matter, but some skills matter more than others. High-skilled, high-earning migrants are prioritised under the new system. But what does high-skilled mean?
Conventional wisdom has it that that British people are strongly against low-skilled migration, but much more accepting, and even supportive, of high-skilled migration. This preference continues to influence policymaking, as the UK government seeks to introduce a new skill-based immigration system post-Brexit, aimed at reducing the number of low-skilled migrants.
With the spotlight on the date and terms on which the UK leaves the EU, immigration has paled into relative insignificance.
A new report by NIESR and Impetus on young people Not In Education, Employment and Training (NEET) reveals that young people with a disadvantaged family background are 50% more likely to be NEET than better off peers irrespective of their education outcome.
We know university degrees affect future earnings power, but could higher vocational education actually make your kids better off? New evidence shows it could.