Blog: September 2019

Hantzsche, A's picture

Dr Arno Hantzsche

Posted: 25 September, 2019 - 11:01

It is common practice in scientific research to check the robustness of findings and test the limitations of results. Much of this robustness checking involves assessing modelling parameters and thinking carefully about mechanisms. But there are also risks to model forecasts that lie outside those that can be traditionally modelled or quantified. Economists tend to call this ‘Knightian uncertainty’. This blog post explores how a shifting political landscape could generate this kind of uncertainty and might cause the impact of Brexit on the UK economy to be fundamentally different compared to estimates NIESR has published in the past.