Blog: July 2021
Although the origins of national income accounting date back centuries, these concepts were taken up by the British government as a vital part of the war effort when the Central Statistical Office was founded in January 1941 directly from Winston Churchill’s command. The crisis of war drove innovation in the field of economic statistics, creating the need for accurate and useful economic statistics.
CPI inflation rose by a large amount (0.5%) for the third month running and is now at 2.5%. The contributions to inflation were spread across most types of expenditure, with Transport being the largest. The current high levels of monthly inflation are unlikely to be sustained and are due to recovery of some prices in the first lockdown and short-run adjustment and supply-chain issues. Inflation will continue to increase until it peaks in early 2022 and then comes down again. The peak may be above 3% but is unlikely to exceed 4%. The high level of inflation in the US is driven by very different factors to UK inflation and we do not expect UK inflation to “catch up” with the high levels of US inflation.
We have known since early this year that because of Covid-19 and lockdowns, public examinations would not go ahead this summer. So, the question is how can we design a mechanism to encourage accurate portrayal of pupil performance, when there may be an incentive to exaggerate?