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Amit Kara

Cyrille Lenoel

Dr Rebecca Piggott

James Warren

Posted: 22 June, 2017 - 17:56 with: Comments

Rivers of ink will be spent on political commentary on the first anniversary of the EU referendum. We at NIESR decided to use our unique expertise to show the evolution of economy since the vote took place in six charts covering Inflation, wages and consumption, investment, housing market and equities.

Our final chart compares GDP growth forecasts by different institutions and shows that NIESR’s own Brexit scenario for 2016 turned out to be pretty much on the money. While the outturn for 2016 was not as bad as some had feared the economy has slowed down markedly this year so far, despite robust employment growth.

 

Dr Rebecca Piggott

Posted: 26 August, 2016 - 14:51 with: Comments

With the decision to leave the EU, there has been much discussion about whether the UK will enter recession. This blog provides some information of the frequency of recessions in recent UK economic history, and puts into context the probability of recession in the aftermath of the referendum.

Dr Rebecca Piggott

Posted: 23 May, 2016 - 18:21 with: Comments

In recent weeks there have been a number of high-profile reports on the economic consequences of a vote to leave the European Union. Among others, the OECD, HM Treasury and we, at the National Institute, have all now published estimates of what the economic landscape might look like in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote on June 23rd. ¹ NIESR’s analysis of the short and long-run impact can be found here, Baker et al (2016).

Dr Rebecca Piggott

James Warren

Dr Monique Ebell

Simon Kirby

Posted: 12 May, 2016 - 10:44 with: Comments

A vote to leave the EU would represent a significant shock to the UK economy. In this piece, we analyse the consequences for the UK economy of leaving the EU, assuming that the UK would no longer have a free trade agreement with the EU.

Dr Rebecca Piggott

Simon Kirby

Posted: 16 March, 2016 - 18:25 with: Comments

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published their macroeconomic forecast today. The outlook is one of continued, albeit moderate, economic growth but more subdued than in their November 2015 forecast. This implies the OBR expect the nation to be around 1½ per cent poorer than they had previously thought by the end of this Parliamentary term[1]. The bulk of the downgrade is explained by domestic factors: a downward revision to potential productivity growth and investment volumes.

Dr Rebecca Piggott

Simon Kirby

Posted: 25 November, 2015 - 16:56 with: Comments

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updated their macroeconomic forecast today. The outlook remains one of continued moderate output growth (marginally below 2½ per cent per annum) and is very similar to the forecast that we produced earlier this month. Figure 1 plots both forecasts together, along with a fan chart that summarizes the uncertainty around NIESR’s forecast, highlighting the lack of discernible difference between the two forecasts.

Figure 1