Blog by author

Marta Lopresto

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 30 October, 2018 - 13:18

In mid-October, the Italian M5S-Lega coalition government submitted its 2019 draft budgetary plan to the European Commission, which subsequently rejected it on 23 October in what is called in Brussels’ jargon an opinion. The rejection of the Italian draft budget by the Commission, on the grounds that it would increase the budget deficit too much, was unprecedented.

Arno Hantzsche

Amit Kara

Cyrille Lenoel

Dr Rebecca Piggott

Posted: 1 August, 2018 - 14:55

The UK government published a White Paper on 12th July outlining its preferences for a future relationship with the EU. In this blog we compare the proposals outlined in the White Paper against other EU free trade agreements (FTA) and also estimate the impact on the UK relative to our central forecast, published in August 2018, that assumes a soft Brexit.

Our results suggest that the UK is looking for a trading relationship that is similar in scope to the arrangement between the EU and Switzerland. If that is indeed the case, we believe that the EU will insist that the UK make concessions on the freedom of movement of people and also ask for a budgetary contribution to EU programmes related to the single market.

We estimate that the economy will suffer an annual loss of around £500 per head over time if the White Paper proposals are broadly agreed.

Amit Kara

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 13 February, 2018 - 18:06

The Prime Minister and four of her senior cabinet colleagues will in a series of speeches over the next few days set out a vision for the UK after Brexit. Those speeches will likely reiterate the government’s official goal of ‘free and frictionless’ trade with the EU. Less clear are the concessions that the UK is prepared to make to achieve this objective. In this blog we explore the likely trade-offs from the prism of a simple schematic and focus on three key areas of negotiation - market access, labour movement and budgetary contribution. There is no magic formula and the decision is ultimately political.  With that in mind, the PM and her colleagues should spell the priorities on each of these three dimensions in the forthcoming speeches.

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 7 November, 2017 - 10:40

The French 5-year budget plan currently under review in the French Parliament deserves careful attention because it is the first one under President Macron and a unique opportunity to address some of the structural weaknesses of the Eurozone’s second largest economy: a high level of taxes and public spending, a competitiveness problem and high unemployment. 

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 30 June, 2017 - 12:56

The natural rate of unemployment of the US economy has reached a lowest point since at least 1949. How can we explain such an achievement? And does it matter? In this blog post, I will explain what we mean by the natural rate of unemployment, give two explanations for its secular decline, and present one challenge ahead.

Amit Kara

Cyrille Lenoel

Dr Rebecca Piggott

James Warren

Posted: 22 June, 2017 - 17:56

Rivers of ink will be spent on political commentary on the first anniversary of the EU referendum. We at NIESR decided to use our unique expertise to show the evolution of economy since the vote took place in six charts covering Inflation, wages and consumption, investment, housing market and equities.

Our final chart compares GDP growth forecasts by different institutions and shows that NIESR’s own Brexit scenario for 2016 turned out to be pretty much on the money. While the outturn for 2016 was not as bad as some had feared the economy has slowed down markedly this year so far, despite robust employment growth.

 

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 8 June, 2017 - 11:36

As French citizens prepare to go to poll on Sunday to elect their representatives in the National Assembly, the lower – and more powerful – of the two chambers of parliament, here is a snapshot of how the French economy has performed in the last five years, identifying three key challenges to long-term prosperity. To follow through on President Macron’s reformist agenda, it is important that a majority willing to tackle those problems emerges from the assembly.

Cyrille Lenoel

Matteo Ramina

Posted: 11 May, 2017 - 12:03

The British Government triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on 29 March. The announcement was widely anticipated and the financial market response was unsurprisingly muted. As we detailed in the latest issue of NIESR’s Economic Review that went out today, the road to final exit is long and other news and events since the referendum have caused more pronounced movements in financial markets.