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The fears over the political stability in Italy, as the populist Five Star and League coalition is now back on the scenes to form a government, come against major structural hurdles including high public debt, a poor productivity growth record and an ageing population.
Real wages are currently growing considerably below the pre-crisis average in many advanced economies. This is particularly striking especially against a backdrop of tight labour markets across a number of G7 economies, leading many economists to question the well-known relationship between unemployment and wage growth that is embodied in the wage-Phillips curve. Take the UK as an example, why is wage growth so low with the unemployment rate at a 40 year low of 4.2 per cent? Back in 1975, when the unemployment rate was at similar levels, wage growth was above 30 percent in nominal terms.
Unlike the 2013 elections and the recent French elections, the outcome of the Italian elections due 4th March is hardly predictable, and that’s due to the fracture of the country into three main blocks, the centre-right coalition, the 5Star Movement, and the Centre-left coalition.
The most recent polls point to the centre-right coalition composed of Berlusconi’s backed Forza Italia, the League (previously known as the Northern League) and Brothers of Italy having roughly 37% of the support. With around 28%, the 5Star Movement currently stands as the biggest single party list. Finally, the centre-left coalition with an estimated 27% of the votes has seen a strong decline in support over the past years. The fragmentation of the country into three main blocks makes the formulation of the outcome highly challenging.