Blog by author

Marta Lopresto

Dr Garry Young

Posted: 14 December, 2018 - 12:19

Earnings growth continues to surprise to the upside. According to new ONS statistics published earlier this week, UK average weekly earnings (AWE) expanded by 3.3 per cent (excl. bonus) and 3.4 per cent (incl. bonus) in the three months to October compared to the year before.

Building on the official data, we think that earnings growth still has room to pick up further. Our econometric models suggest that UK earnings will continue to accelerate going into the New Year. 

Marta Lopresto

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 30 October, 2018 - 13:18

In mid-October, the Italian M5S-Lega coalition government submitted its 2019 draft budgetary plan to the European Commission, which subsequently rejected it on 23 October in what is called in Brussels’ jargon an opinion. The rejection of the Italian draft budget by the Commission, on the grounds that it would increase the budget deficit too much, was unprecedented.

Marta Lopresto

Barry Naisbitt

Posted: 31 July, 2018 - 09:42

During the time of uncertainty before a coalition of populist parties formed a government in Italy at the end of May, there was a rapid sell-off of Italian bonds, with the yield on the ten-year Italian government bond hitting 3.2 per cent in early June. In the same period, the Italian benchmark FTSE MIB index declined by 13 per cent compared to a month earlier.

Marta Lopresto

Amit Kara

Dr Garry Young

Posted: 5 July, 2018 - 18:12

For more than twenty years, following the pioneering work of Martin Weale and our colleagues, NIESR provided the only published estimates of monthly GDP for the United Kingdom.  Starting next Tuesday, 10th July 2018, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will for the first time publish an official monthly GDP series. 

Marta Lopresto

Amit Kara

Posted: 1 June, 2018 - 08:53

The fears over the political stability in Italy, as the populist Five Star and League coalition is now back on the scenes to form a government, come against major structural hurdles including high public debt, a poor productivity growth record and an ageing population. 

Marta Lopresto

Amit Kara

Posted: 4 May, 2018 - 12:25

Real wages are currently growing considerably below the pre-crisis average in many advanced economies. This is particularly striking especially against a backdrop of tight labour markets across a number of G7 economies, leading many economists to question the well-known relationship between unemployment and wage growth that is embodied in the wage-Phillips curve. Take the UK as an example, why is wage growth so low with the unemployment rate at a 40 year low of 4.2 per cent? Back in 1975, when the unemployment rate was at similar levels, wage growth was above 30 percent in nominal terms.

 

Marta Lopresto

Posted: 1 March, 2018 - 11:39

Unlike the 2013 elections and the recent French elections, the outcome of the Italian elections due 4th March is hardly predictable, and that’s due to the fracture of the country into three main blocks, the centre-right coalition, the 5Star Movement, and the Centre-left coalition.

The most recent polls point to the centre-right coalition composed of Berlusconi’s backed Forza Italia,  the League (previously known as the Northern League) and Brothers of Italy having roughly 37% of the support. With around 28%, the 5Star Movement currently stands as the biggest single party list. Finally, the centre-left coalition with an estimated 27% of the votes has seen a strong decline in support over the past years. The fragmentation of the country into three main blocks makes the formulation of the outcome highly challenging.