Blog by author
Dr Adrian Pabst
Next Monday (29th October), the Chancellor of the Exchequer will present his budget to the House of Commons. He is expected to present spending plans for the coming five years, based on the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR)’s forecasts for GDP growth. As with any projection, these forecasts are inherently uncertain, particularly as a result of substantial lags from preliminary measures of economic activity to the final estimate. For instance, since 1993, there has been only one occasion when GDP figures were not revised a quarter after the first release. Considerable uncertainty also exists as to the exact state and prospects for the UK economy.
NIESR marked its 80th year with a special session at the recent annual Royal Economic Society Conference devoted to the “Productivity puzzles past and present.”
Four outstanding speakers - Nicholas Crafts from the University of Warwick, Eric Bartelsman from the Vrije Univesiteit Amsterdam, Phillip Wales, Head of Productivity at the ONS and Rebecca Riley, Director of ESCoE – took turns to examine the issue which has been bedevilling successive generations of economists .