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Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 23 September, 2014 - 15:30

In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 4 June, 2014 - 15:18

The publication of two official reports last week making apparently contradictory claims might appear to reflect badly on the 'dismal science' (economics). On the one hand, the Treasury report claims that Scots would be £1,400 better off each year by staying in the union. On the other hand, the Scottish Government claims that Scots would receive a £1,000 bonus per year if Scotland becomes independent. If the officials cannot decide, then is there any hope that the rest of us can make sense of their claims?

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 10 April, 2014 - 16:43

Our estimates of the possible borrowing costs for an independent Scottish government contained in full detail in our Discussion Paper 416, Scotland’s Currency Options, have been closely examined by all sides of the debate. In recent weeks Professor Andrew Hughes-Hallett, a member of the Scottish Government’s Fiscal Commission Working Group and Council of Economic Advisors, in evidence to the Scottish Parliament, claimed that:

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 18 March, 2014 - 14:30

The latest Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) report shows that the fiscal deficit relative to output increased to 8.3% from 5.8% in 2012-13. This includes the favourable geographic share of tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas. The onshore deficit fell slightly but remains a staggering 14% of GDP. There is no denying that these are very large deficits. While most of the commentary has been comparing the data to the whole of the UK, the real news in these figures is the volatility of tax revenues.

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 4 March, 2014 - 12:52

Statements from Scotland’s First Minister last week suggest that a Currency Plan B is beginning to emerge. It appears that the Scottish Government is committed to a sterling currency union regardless of the UK Government's view. The fall-back option then appears to be dollarization using sterling as the medium of exchange. This blog considers some the possible consequences of dollarization.

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 12 February, 2014 - 14:39

According to press reports, on Thursday Chancellor Osborne will rule out a formal currency union with an independent Scotland. Given that he has already said a formal currency union is 'unlikely', and the Prime Minister has said 'extremely difficult', anything which is still ambiguous would surely be regarded as a negotiating stance.

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 14 January, 2014 - 14:33

This blog was originally published on 2nd December 2013, and was based on debt projections of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published in the March 2013 Economic and Fiscal Outlook. This is an updated version of that blog to include the latest OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook released on 5th December 2013.

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 2 December, 2013 - 13:52

The Scottish Government’s White Paper provides an outline of its proposals for dividing the existing UK public debt and how the rest of the UK might be compensated. This note considers the implications of these proposals for the rest of the United Kingdom. We explain that in all cases, the UK’s debt to GDP ratio will rise, with possible consequences for its credit rating. At the same time, Scotland’s debt burden will be lower than the UK’s in all cases.

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 27 November, 2013 - 13:36

Currency arrangements that survive the test of time need to be coherent in all circumstances and without ambiguity. Part of any robust union is that there is a full commitment to make it work.

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 15 July, 2013 - 17:10

 

 

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 6 June, 2013 - 18:48

This speech discuss the prospect of an independent Scotland re-introducing its own currency. This is far from hypothetical. In recent weeks the leader of the Yes campaign has also suggested that this would be the best option for an independent Scotland. This appears to becoming the 'Plan B'. Indeed, if Scotland is to join the European Union then a pre-requisite of joining the euro is to already have had an independent currency and central bank. However, the key point I make today is that if Scotland is to prosper over the long term, it is not enough just to have a new currency. It is not enough to advocate a new currency as a process of elimination. And it is not enough to advocate a new currency on a text book case of how this could allow an independent monetary policy. Above all else, an independent Scotland requires a ‘hard’ currency if it is to prosper.

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 22 May, 2013 - 13:14

 “International monetary regimes have been born at a conference table and laid to rest in foreign exchange markets[2]

Currencies are national emblems, but the choice of currency regime governs the basis of monetary policy, financial policy and, in some circumstances, fiscal policy. In a very real sense, the choice of currency is the choice of economic independence.

Armstrong, A's picture

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 12 April, 2013 - 01:45

 

Financial crises are like wars; the winners write the history. In the UK the winners are the Treasury and the Bank of England armed with the ultimate weapon of the public purse. There will be no public enquiry into the cause of the crisis or the performance of our public institutions responsible for financial system stability. All this matters because without learning from past mistakes we are condemned to repeat them.

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