The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Dixon, H's picture

Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 26 October, 2020 - 07:49

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute




The CPIH measure of inflation has increased to 0.7% in September 2020, from its August level of 0.5%. The CPILW decreased slightly to 0.9% from the August value of 1.0%.

TraceyL's picture

Louise Tracey

BonettiS's picture

Sara Bonetti

Bowyer-Crane, C's picture

Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane

Posted: 16 October, 2020 - 11:10


Starting school is a significant developmental milestone that can cause anxiety at the best of times.  So, what impact will the global pandemic have on school starters this year?

Macchiarelli, C's picture

Dr Corrado Macchiarelli

SMellina's picture

Sathya Mellina

Posted: 12 October, 2020 - 16:16

The outcome of the Brexit referendum caught financial markets by surprise, resulting in sharp moves in market prices. But what do those moves tell us about the underlying economic impacts? 

DixonM's picture

Megan Dixon

NewtonR's picture

Rob Newton

DrSilkeFricke's picture

Dr Silke Fricke

Bowyer-Crane, C's picture

Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane

Posted: 12 October, 2020 - 09:54

Many professionals within the early years sector are understandably angry at the government’s record around the early years given its crucial importance in children’s life.  These include issues around insufficient funding, the development of new frameworks without genuine sector consultation and the lack of focus on supporting pre-school settings.  We are concerned that this frustration has led to misunderstandings being widely shared about a programme designed to support early language skills, and this may prove harmful for supporting informed decision making.

Dixon, H's picture

Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 16 September, 2020 - 14:18

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute



The CPIH measure of inflation has decreased to 0.5% in August 2020, from its July level of 1.1%. The CPILW fell by less, with an August value of 1.0% down from the previous month 1.2%. 

Macchiarelli, C's picture

Dr Corrado Macchiarelli

Lenoel, C's picture

Cyrille Lenoel

Posted: 10 September, 2020 - 12:19

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to have a significant impact on medium-run inflation expectations particularly if considered in conjunction with large fiscal stimuli, ultra-loose monetary policies and the risk of de-globalization. The recent review of monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve, focusing on an average inflation target strategy, highlights how difficult it can be to keep inflation expectations well-anchored when secular factors are at play (i.e.

Dixon, H's picture

Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 19 August, 2020 - 12:09

The CPIH measure of inflation has increased to 1.1% and now the gap between the lockdown measure CPILW of 1.2% is small. The use of pre-pandemic expenditure weights is no longer leading to an under-estimate of inflation.

Inflation is set to increase as the pandemic raises costs in many parts of the economy.  This is unlikely to happen in 2020 as demand will remain low as unemployment and bankruptcies increase in the coming months. 

SentanceA's picture

Dr Andrew Sentance CBE

Posted: 10 August, 2020 - 15:38


The Coronavirus pandemic has cast a dark cloud over UK economic prospects for the 2020s. The latest NIESR forecast suggests that GDP will not return to its 2019 level until 2023 or 2024. The Bank of England is more optimistic about the potential for the UK economy to bounce back but it is still not expecting the 2019 level of GDP to be exceeded until 2022. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) central scenario is for a recovery somewhere between the NIESR and Bank projections.

Holland, D's picture

Dawn Holland

Posted: 31 July, 2020 - 09:02

The Covid-19 pandemic and extraordinary measures put in place to contain the spread of the virus have delivered a dramatic shock to the world economy. As the stringency of global lockdown measures gradually ease, an understanding of the short-term economic consequences of these measures is beginning to emerge. 

Boshoff, J's picture

Janine Boshoff

Posted: 24 July, 2020 - 15:56

Statistical agencies such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are responsible for collecting data on the prices of goods and services that we consumers purchase in order to calculate inflation. The ONS creates a representative ‘basket of goods’ that include the goods and services that households buy and consume most often. Historically, the prices for these goods and services would then be collected by dedicated price collectors each month, allowing the ONS to calculate the average price change between subsequent months.

Nguyen, D's picture

Dr David Nguyen

Posted: 22 July, 2020 - 13:38


Covid-19 and Brexit show that high speed internet is essential for growth

Dixon, H's picture

Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 15 July, 2020 - 11:58

The CPILW for June 2020 is 1.1%, unchanged from 1.1% in May. This is 0.3% above the official CPIH of 0.8% and indicates that the official inflation measure CPIH understates inflation.

BenitoA's picture

Andrew Benito

Posted: 6 July, 2020 - 09:51

Will mass unemployment overshadow the U.K. outlook or will we be struck by the resilience in employment following a severe, yet short-lived, recession? Using the Beveridge curve to construct a baseline points to the unemployment rate rising sharply from 4% to 10% as the UK’s Covid-19 Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) unwinds in the second half of the year.

Dixon, H's picture

Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 17 June, 2020 - 15:31

The CPILW for May 2020 is 1.1%, a slight fall from 1.2% in April. It is 0.4% above the official CPIH and indicates that the official inflation measure CPIH understates inflation.

DoyleP's picture

Peter Doyle

Posted: 10 June, 2020 - 08:27

Slavery was and is a pathology of economics. Our long-standing failure to reflect that has caused us to mishandle our foundational concept of “an economic agent”. Correcting that will not only secure the integrity of our discipline at its core but is also essential to for us to grasp exactly what is at stake in the earthquake now unfolding in the United States—and its global implications—after the murder of George Floyd, and to ponder what is to be done about it.

Bougheas's picture

Spiros Bougheas

Posted: 8 June, 2020 - 11:52

The government has introduced a number of new policy initiatives offering financial support to those who lost their jobs during the crisis.  However, the policies have been costly, not comprehensive, and financed in a way that is both unfair and endangering the prospects of post-crisis recovery.  An alternative plan is proposed.

Huxley's picture

Clare Huxley

Dawson's picture

Anneka Dawson

Manzoni, C's picture

Dr Chiara Manzoni

Runge, J's picture

Johnny Runge

Stokes, L's picture

Lucy Stokes

Posted: 28 May, 2020 - 14:53

Expected impacts from the disruption to children’s education as a result of the Covid-19 crisis have been a recurrent theme since the start of lockdown, particularly for children from more disadvantaged backgrounds. Children in Reception and Year 1 are among the first being encouraged to return to school from 1 June. At the same time, early years and childcare settings are also being asked to welcome more children back. This focus on getting the youngest back to educational settings acknowledges the critical importance of learning in the early years for future outcomes.

Bowyer-Crane, C's picture

Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane

Pabst, A's picture

Prof Adrian Pabst

Posted: 26 May, 2020 - 11:04

During this crisis, central government has provided unprecedented levels of financial support for employers, employees and self-employed workers.

Naisbitt, B's picture

Barry Naisbitt

Posted: 21 May, 2020 - 12:49

The economic downturn in the wake of Covid-19 means forecasters must navigate a totally different economic landscape. But by organising thoughts about possible future scenarios, forecasts can help governments identify policies to bridge from today to a new future

Dixon, H's picture

Prof Huw Dixon

Posted: 8 May, 2020 - 15:28

The ONS intends to alter the way it computes the CPIH index in response to the CV19 Lockdown and social distancing (ONS 2020).  Partly this has to do with the collection of prices: partly with the calculation itself.  Indeed in yesterday’s published minutes of the MPC, the problems of the scope of collection and the availability of certain price series was highlighted