Blogs

The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Chadha, J S's picture

Prof Jagjit S. Chadha

Posted: 27 October, 2017 - 10:35

The events in the financial markets of 2007 and 2008 represented a huge economic and financial shock and the correct response was to run public deficits and to loosen monetary policy rapidly and for an extended period to facilitate as orderly an adjustment to these shocks as possible.  These initial responses were intended to be temporary, as indeed are all monetary interventions.  But ten years after these events, we are still running fiscal deficits and monetary policy seems ultra-accommodative.

 

Hantzsche, A's picture

Dr Arno Hantzsche

Posted: 24 October, 2017 - 16:40

On Thursday, 26 October, market participants expect the European Central Bank to set out its plans for the future of its asset purchase programme. After its last Governing Council meeting, President Draghi said that the ‘bulk of decisions’ concerning quantitative easing is likely to be taken in October. What many observers wonder is: will lifting unconventional monetary policy measures lead to a renewed divergence of euro area government bond yields?

 

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 23 October, 2017 - 11:24

Cloud Yip is running a series of interviews under the title of “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century” and I was privileged to be included in that series.  Last week I put up my first post about the interview. This week’s post is the second in a series where I expand on my answers to Cloud. Here, I discuss my views on rational expectations and I talk about a new version of search theory, Keynesian Search Theory, that underpins my joint papers with Giovanni Nicolò on “Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve” and with Konstantin Platonov, “Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model”. 

 

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 15 October, 2017 - 23:16

A couple of months ago, I had the pleasure of speaking with Cloud Yip. Cloud is running a series of interviews under the title of “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century” and I was privileged to be included in that series.

Bursnall, M's picture

Dr Matt Bursnall

Speckesser, S's picture

Dr Stefan Speckesser

Posted: 11 October, 2017 - 12:04

Recently, the FT showed that contrary to popular belief the most troubling issue for SMEs in Europe is not access to finance but access to skills – with the level of concern and the gap between the issues getting larger.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 9 October, 2017 - 14:46

Today’s announcement of a Nobel Prize for Richard Thaler is richly deserved and I congratulate the Nobel committee for recognising the importance of the growing influence of behavioural economics that Richard helped to create.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 2 October, 2017 - 08:00

Policy makers at central banks have been puzzled by the fact that inflation is weak even though the unemployment rate is low and the economy is operating at or close to capacity.

Munro-Lott, N's picture

Naomi Munro-Lott

Posted: 29 September, 2017 - 12:09

In a post-Brexit world, there are fears that the UK labour market will experience a shortage of both high and low skilled workers. Recently, the focus has been on the future of lower skilled EU citizens who are instrumental in the UK agricultural and seasonal sectors. In certain industries, up to 40% of employers originate from the EU, and there is concern that if these EU citizens return to Europe the domestic labour force will not be able to make up these losses. But there have also been reports of possible shortages of highly-skilled workers.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 24 September, 2017 - 22:53

Like most academics, I spend much of my time asking for money from research councils. So, it is a welcome change for me to sit on the other side of the table in my role on the management team of Rebuilding Macroeconomics. This is an initiative located at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in the UK and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 18 September, 2017 - 09:23

This is my final post featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 11 September, 2017 - 13:13

This is my penultimate post featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.

Rolfe, H's picture

Dr Heather Rolfe

Posted: 6 September, 2017 - 12:25

A leaked Home Office document setting out a number of post-Brexit immigration proposals has set alarm bells ringing, not least among UK employers. Just when they thought sense was prevailing, that there would be no ‘cliff edge’ they now hear of plans to end free movement immediately after Brexit. And while once they perceived a welcome recognition of the importance of low skilled workers, as well as the highly skilled, in key sectors, they hear of proposals to drive down the number of these workers and allow them only temporary residency.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 2 September, 2017 - 21:51

This is week five of my posts featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 28 August, 2017 - 00:04

This is week four of my posts featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.

Kara, A's picture

Amit Kara

Posted: 25 August, 2017 - 16:48

 

 

Economic forecasts were roundly criticised for exaggerating the fallout from the EU referendum last year. As it turned out, the economy did outperform many forecasts in the period that immediately followed the referendum, but that has changed quite markedly this year as household incomes are squeezed by high inflation and economic growth has consequently slowed. Was the criticism fair?

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Posted: 24 August, 2017 - 17:48

In a piece released this week , Patrick Minford and his co-author argue that the UK should unilaterally reduce trade barriers, because this would lower import prices. Moreover, by subjecting UK producers to unfettered competition from abroad, UK food growers and manufacturers would be forced to become more competitive, further lowering prices for UK consumers.

Ebell, M's picture

Dr Monique Ebell

Posted: 22 August, 2017 - 00:00

If most of the latest report by Patrick Minford, of Economists for Free Trade, on Britain’s future prospects post-Brexit sounds too good to be true, it’s because it probably is.

Farmer, R's picture

Prof Roger Farmer

Posted: 21 August, 2017 - 08:45

This is my third memo featuring research presented at the conference on Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomics Policy Conference held at the Bank of England on July 3rd and 4th 2017.

Allen, B's picture

Bill Allen

Posted: 18 August, 2017 - 00:00

The Bank of England is proud of its independence, which since 1997 has allowed it to determine, without interference, the prevailing level of short-term interest rates in pursuit of price stability. Since 2009, it has, however, changed interest rates only once.

Hacche, G's picture

Graham Hacche

Liadze, I's picture

Iana Liadze

Posted: 16 August, 2017 - 00:00

In its August ReviewNIESR revised its forecast for GDP growth in the Euro Area in 2017 up to 2.0 per cent from 1.6 per cent projected in May.  The Review also noted that the recent significant strengthening of growth in the Area had been accompanied by a smaller divergence of growth performance among member countries than seen in most of the period since the euro was introduced.

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