Blogs

The NIESR blog is a forum for Institute research staff to provide an informed, independent view on current economic issues and recent NIESR research. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Institute.

Dr Monique Ebell

Posted: 3 November, 2016 - 12:28 with: Comments

More than four months after the referendum result to leave the European Union, there are still big question marks around what the UK’s future outside the European Union will look like. 

Graham Hacche

Iana Liadze

Posted: 2 November, 2016 - 14:14 with: Comments

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has just published its quarterly economic review and forecast of the world economy, again highlighting the continued mediocre growth of the advanced economies.

Posted: 2 November, 2016 - 03:28 with: Comments

In the aftermath of June 2016 EU Referendum result the majority of attention has focused on what might be future economic relationship between the UK and the EU and the prospects for the UK’s trade relationships with third countries once outside the EU. None of the proposed models for the future trade policy relationship between the UK and the EU (for example, membership of the European Economic Area or a Free Trade agreement) come with a defined foreign and security policy relationship.

Dr Monique Ebell

Posted: 31 October, 2016 - 10:20 with: Comments

There is no shortage of advice to women, on how to manage our careers and body clocks, strive for work-life balance, ‘lean in’ and have it all. Sometimes it feels as if everyone has an opinion about how working women should organise their lives, and some of the advice can feel difficult to live up to.  

Posted: 27 October, 2016 - 20:12 with: Comments

Today’s GDP figures suggest that the immediate economic impact of the Brexit vote has, at least up until September, been modest.  Contrary to most forecasts, there isn’t much evidence to suggest that increased uncertainty has, as yet, translated into reduced consumer spending or business activity. Of course, this says almost nothing at all about the long-term economic impacts of Brexit; and it is that is the focus of most of the serious independent analysis of the impact of Brexit. Recession is bad, but a permanent long-term hit to growth is worse. . 

Posted: 18 October, 2016 - 17:21 with: Comments

NIESR has been in the news quite a bit in the last 24 hours following the publication of a set of reports on the Troubled Families Programme. The Programme was launched in 2012 with a budget of £448m to tackle around 120.000 problem families who were said by the Government to cost taxpayers £9bn a year.

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 14 October, 2016 - 18:21 with: Comments

Almost half a century ago, Prime Minister Harold Wilson told the country:  "From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.”

Posted: 11 September, 2016 - 18:19 with: Comments

Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, said almost nothing on the Andrew Marr show today. Given that there is currently almost a complete policy vacuum in government, this was entirely sensible.  However, her comments – following Theresa May’s last week – are being reported as a further endorsement of a “work permit” system for economic migration versus the “points-based” one proposed by Vote Leave during the referendum campaign.

Posted: 29 August, 2016 - 17:33 with: Comments

 As previous readers of my blogs on this topic will know, for much of the last year I (along with Michael O’Connor) have been pressing HMRC and DWP to release more data on how many National Insurance numbers issued to EU nationals are actually in use.  Last Thursday, we edged closer to an answer.

Dr Rebecca Piggott

Posted: 26 August, 2016 - 14:51 with: Comments

With the decision to leave the EU, there has been much discussion about whether the UK will enter recession. This blog provides some information of the frequency of recessions in recent UK economic history, and puts into context the probability of recession in the aftermath of the referendum.

Posted: 17 August, 2016 - 09:53 with: Comments

What do today’s labour market statistics tell us about what’s going to happen to the UK labour market as a result of the referendum result? On the face of it, not much.  The headline figures for employment, unemployment and so on are based on Labour Force Survey data for the months for April to June (and the changes are calculated with respect to the three months prior to that).    The “single month” statistics do show a small uptick in unemployment (from its April low of 4.8% to 5.1%) - but these numbers are volatile, which is why the ONS doesn’t use them as the headline.

Dr Heather Rolfe

Posted: 11 August, 2016 - 09:00 with: Comments

The referendum result took the nation by surprise. Among others, politicians and journalists voiced this collective shock, expressed by some as jubilation, by others as dismay and even by regret.

Posted: 5 August, 2016 - 12:23 with: Comments

This is a guest blog by Richard Disney, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, A Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics, University College, London, and a Research Fellow of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

 

Posted: 3 August, 2016 - 13:44 with: Comments

[This is my contribution to the VoxEU e-book "Brexit Beckons: Thinking Ahead by leading economists", which is available for (free) download here.  It is edited by Richard Baldwin and includes contributions from my NIESR colleague Angus Armstrong and many others

 

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 2 August, 2016 - 22:16 with: Comments

One reason for the UK leaving the EU was the promise of ‘taking back control’ of trade policy. The UK would give up its influence and vote on EU policies in return for the freedom to negotiate its own trade agreements with countries around the world.

Posted: 31 July, 2016 - 09:15 with: Comments

A month ago, I, along with several of my colleagues from the UK in a Changing Europe programme, other academics, and politicians from both the Leave and Remain campaign, signed a letter to the Daily Telegraph calling on the government to guarantee the rights of EU citizens currently living in the UK:

Nathan Hudson-Sharp

Posted: 25 July, 2016 - 14:11 with: Comments

The UK has long been considered one of the best countries in the world for supporting LGBTI rights. With recent progress in relation to same-sex marriage and the prevention of LGB&T hate speech, it could even be said that the UK is well on its way to achieving full LGB&T equality.

Dr Angus Armstrong

Posted: 5 July, 2016 - 17:04 with: Comments

The UK’s decision to leave the EU is a watershed event. It may bring to an end the free movement of labour and limit the free trade of goods and services between the UK and EU. This follows hot on the heels of the fragmentation of international finance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. How world leaders respond will determine whether Brexit is a set-back to globalisation, or part of deeper retrenchment.

Posted: 3 July, 2016 - 16:39 with: Comments

Before the referendum, it appeared that a Brexit vote would mean that the UK faced a clear choice on immigration policy.  If we wanted as far as possible to retain access to the Single Market,  either by maintaining membership of the European Economic Area (like Norway) or via a series of bilateral agreements (like Switzerland) then we would need to accept that freedom of movement would continue much as now.   Recognising this – and regarding it as an unacceptable price to pay – both UKIP and, eventu

Posted: 30 June, 2016 - 15:58 with: Comments

A week is a short time in economics.  So what , if anything, have we learned about the economic impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union?  I would highlight four key points.

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