Economic Crisis: Covid-19
Our excellent networks, state of the art modelling, cross disciplinary research and economic measurement makes NIESR ideally placed to lead debate on the social and economic impact of the Coronavirus. We have started to publish a range of perspective from our staff and partners, and will continue to do so over the coming weeks. You can browse our research below, or by using the signposts to the left.
You can also find further reading on the Economics Observatory website - a new website that seeks to answer questions from policy-makers and the public about the economics of the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery.
"Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model" 12 August 2021, NIESR Discussion Paper, by Cyrille Lenoel and Garry Young
"Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum July 2021 - Business survey data: What can the PMI tell us about post-Covid UK recovery and inflation?" 05 August 2021
"UK Economic Outlook Summer 2021: Emerging from the Shadow of Covid-19" 02 August 2021, by Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory MacQueen
"Global Economic Outlook Summer 2021 - Lifting the Pandemic Cloud" 02 August 2021, by Corrado Macchiarelli et al
"Bank Chief Economist: Manager or Thought Leader?", 04 June 2021, NIESR blog by Andrew Sentance CBE
"Underlying inflation at 6-month high", 19 May 2021, NIESR CPI Tracker by Janine Boshoff
"No sign of persistent wage inflation despite lower unemployment and higher vacancies", 18 May 2021, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cryille Lenoel
"Construction and education recovery to be followed by retail and hospitality", 12 May 2021, NIESR GDP Tracker by Rory MacQueen
"Brisk but not Better Growth", 10 May 2021, National Institute UK Economic Outlook, by Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory MacQueen
"Our Vaccine Debt", 10 May 2021, National Institute Global Economic Outlook by Barry Naisbitt et el
"Covid recovery in the education sector – let’s not forget the teachers", 27th April 2021, NIESR blog by Claudine Bowyer-Crane et al
"Highest underlying inflation since October", 21 April 2021, CPI Tracker by Janine Boshoff
"The economy created more jobs than it lost during the third national lockdown", 20 April 2021, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cyrille Lenoel
"How should the COVID restrictions in England be eased?", 16 April 2021, NIESR Policy Paper by David K. Miles, Adrian H Heald and Michael Stedman
"Spring sees green shoots of economic recovery", 13 April 2021, NIESR GDP Tracker by Rory MacQueen
"One year on from the first lockdown: What lies ahead?", 26 March 2021, NIESR blog by Rory MacQueen
"Non-essential retail prices drag down inflation", 24 March 2021, NIESR CPI Tracker by Janine Boshoff
"The vaccination programme gives the first shots of hope to the labour market, but unemployment to trend up", 23 March 2021, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cyrille Lenoel
"Monetary policy and government debt management during the coronavirus pandemic", 16 March 2021, National Institute Economic Review no 255, February 2021, by W A Allen
"Be kind or take it on the chin? Political narratives, pandemics, and social distancing", 10 March 2021, NIESR Discussion Paper by Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai, Edmund Lou and Sherry X. Wu
"Budget 2021: Today’s triumphs won’t solve tomorrow’s problems", 3 March 2021, NIESR press note
"The UK public are confused about government borrowing and debt", 2 March 2021, NIESR Blog by Johnny Runge
"NIESR Press Release: Destitution levels are rising across the country – and terribly worrying in certain regions, NIESR research shows" 22nd February 2021
"Underlying inflation suggests a turning point", 17th February 2021, NIESR CPI Tracker, Janine Boshoff
"NIESR Press Release: NIESR welcomes Treasury Select Committee report’s recommendations", 15th February 2021, Press Release on publication of Commons Treasury Select Committee’s report: “Economic impact of coronavirus: gaps in support and economic analysis”
"Continued lockdown puts gloom on Q1 outlook", 12th February 2021, NIESR GDP Tracker by Kemar Whyte
"Brexit Britain in Covid Recovery Ward", 8th February 2021, National Institute UK Economic Outlook, by Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory MacQueen
"The World in its Grip: Covid-19", 8th February 2021, National Institute Global Economic Outlook by Barry Naisbitt et el
"Supporting migrant children in lockdown: time for joined-up thinking", 01 February 2021, NIESR blog by Chiara Manzoni and Alessio D’Angelo
"What we can learn about economics from professional sport during Covid-19", 28 January 2021, NIESR Discussion Paper by Carl Singleton, Alex Bryson, Peter Dolton, J. James Reade and Dominik Schreyer
"Compositional effects push up average weekly earnings at the end of 2020", 26 January 2021, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cyrille Lenoel
"Continued lockdown measures keep underlying inflation low", 20 January 2021, NIESR CPI Tracker by Janine Boshoff
"Adjusting to lockdowns: GDP to contract in 2021Q1", 15 January 2021, NIESR GDP Tracker by Rory Macqueen
"Largest decline in underlying inflation since the start of the pandemic", 16 December 2020, NIESR CPI Tracker, Janine Boshoff
"2020 shaping up to be the worst year for total pay growth since 2009", 15 December 2020, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cyrille Lenoel
"October Cloud and November Rain", 10 December 2020, NIESR GDP Tracker by Rory Macqueen
"The Pending Review: Fiscal Policy and Covid-19", 25 November 2020, NIESR Policy Paper 24 by Jagjit Chadha, Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory Macqueen
"An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization During COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation", 23 November 2020, NIESR Discussion Paper 521 by Roland Pongou, Guy Tchuente and Jean-Baptiste Tondji
"Slight pickup in underlying inflation amid high uncertainty", 18 November 2020, NIESR CPI Tracker by Janine Boshoff
"GDP forecast to contract by 2.2 per cent in Q4", 12 November 2020, NIESR GDP Wage Tracker by Kemar Whyte and Hande Kucuk
"The recovery in average weekly earnings to stall despite hopes for a new vaccine", 10 November 2020, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cyrille Lenoel
"Second wave to cause further contraction in Q4", 2 November, Prospects for the UK Economy, National Institute Economic Review no 254, Hande Kucuk, Cyrille Lenoel and Rory MacQueen
"US and Euro Area not regaining their pre-Covid GDP levels until mid-2022 and mid-2023 respectively", 2 November, The World Economy, National Institute Economic Review no 254, Barry Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, Ian Hurst, Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram and Kemar Whyte
"Underlying inflation moderated due to weak demand and uncertainty", 21 October, NIESR October CPI Tracker by Janine Boshoff
"Reconstructing Macroeconomics after COVID-19: Notes for a First Draft", 20 October, NIESR Policy Paper 022 by Peter Doyle
"Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment", 19 October, NIESR Discussion Paper 517 by Andrew Harvey
"Starting school in the midst of a global pandemic", 16 October, NIESR blog by Claudine Bowyer-Crane, Sara Bonetti and Louise Tracey
"Covid-19 continues to suppress private sector pay", 14 October, NIESR Wage Tracker by Cyrille Lenoel
"NELI’s language development programme - a useful tool in every school’s arsenal", 12 October, NIESR blog by Claudine Bowyer-Crane, Rob Newton, Silke Fricke and Megan Dixon
"Headline Inflation at Multi-Year Low but Underlying Inflation Unchanged", 16 September, CPI Tracker, Janine Boshoff
"Private Sector Pay to Decline Further in Q3 as Employment Falls", 15 September, Wage Tracker, Cyrille Lenoel
"UK economy on rocky road to recovery with growth forecast of around 2 per cent in August", 11 September, GDP Tracker, Kemar Whyte
"Is it all quiet on the inflation front?", 11 September, NIESR blog by Cyrille Lenoel and Corrado Macchiarelli
"Economics in a Public Health Crisis", 2 September, article in the Summer 2020 Science in Parliament Journal by Jagjit Chadha
"Assessing the impact of COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific and designing policy responses: An Excel-based model", 17 August, online presentation by NIESR fellow Dawn Holland
"I miss the honey lady”: How one resident helped her community to understand what is truly valuable", 14 August, Prospect, Jagjit Chadha
"GDP picking up after recession confirmed", 12 August, GDP Tracker, Kemar Whyte
"Pay Growth Turns Negative", 11 August, Wage Tracker, Garry Young
"Low Growth is the “New Normal” for the UK and Other Western Economies", 10 August, NIESR blog by NIESR Visitor Andrew Sentance
"Extending the furlough scheme would cost little – and benefit the whole of the UK", 4 August, The Guardian, Garry Young
"Household spending in lockdown", 31 July, NIESR Blog by Dawn Holland
"Robust public policies will determine the economic outlook for the UK", 29 July, Prospect, by Jagjit Chadha
"COVID-19 impacts on destitution in the UK", 29 July, National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253, Arnab Bhattacharjee and Elena Lisauskaite
"Living with Covid-19: balancing costs against benefits in the face of the virus", 29 July, National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253, David Miles, Mike Stedman and Adrian Heald
"Firm creation in the UK during lockdown", 23 July, preview from the National Institute Economic Review, August 2020, no 253. by Alfred Duncan, Miguel León-Ledesma and Anthony Savagar
"Failure to tackle digital skills divide will worsen regional inequality", 22 July, NIESR blog by David Nguyen
"Private Sector Pay Weakening as Pay Falls" , 18 July, Wage Tracker, Garry Young
"Measuring inflation in the pandemic - June 2020", 17 July, blog by Huw Dixon
"Underlying Inflation Diverges at Regional Level", 17 July, Wage Tracker, Janine Boshoff
"Slow recovery from 20 per cent output contraction", 16 July, GDP Tracker, Kemar Whyte
"Chancellor’s ‘Badly Timed Change of Tack’ Could Trigger Job Losses", 8 July, NIESR Press Release
"NIESR Analysis Ahead of the Summer Statement: Keep Doing ‘Whatever it Takes’", 8 July, by Garry Young
"The Impact of Covid-19 on the UK Jobs Market", 6 July, NIESR blog by Andrew Benito
"How universities can embrace the post-Covid future", 19 June, The New Statesman, by Peter Dolton
"Coronavirus queues are giving Britons a lesson in simple economics", 18 June, The Independent, by Jagjit Chadha
"Statement re House of Commons Treasury Committee Report on Economic impact of coronavirus: Gaps in support", by Claudine Bowyer-Crane and Adrian Pabst
"UK Set to Lose a Quarter of Output in Q2", 12 June, NIESR June GDP Tracker by Kemar Whyte
"Unfair Policies, Costly Consequences", 8 June, NIESR blog by Spiros Bougheaus
"How the EU could pioneer a new economic model for the post-Covid-19 world", 7 June, New Statesmen article by Adrian Pabst and John Milbank
"Vulnerability from Debt in the Coronavirus Crisis", 27th May, NIESR Policy Paper by Barry Naisbitt
"How to help new starters: an open letter", 26th May, NIESR blog by Claudine Bowyer-Crane and Adrian Pabst
"The Economics of the UK University System in the Time of Covid-19", 22nd May, NIESR Policy Paper 019 by Peter Dolton
"Economic forecasting in a time of Covid-19", 21st May, NIESR blog by Barry Naisbitt
"Underlying Inflation Reflects Inflationary Pressure", 20th May, CPI Tracker, Janine Boshoff
"First Signs of Severe Labour Market Impact of Covid-19", 19th May, Wage Tracker, Garry Young and Patricia Sanchez Juanino
"Why Covid-19 should change the conversation on migrant workers",18th May, New Statesman, by Andrew Aitken and Chiara Manzoni
Playlist of COVID-19 videos on YouTube (Featuring videos from Garry Young, Deputy Director at NIESR; our Economists' Briefing from 29th April on the "UK and World Economy Contraction and Recovery"; and our joint webinar with the University of Glasgow from the 12th May on "What Next for the UK and World Economy?")
"NIESR/University of Glasgow Webinar - Covid Crisis: What Next for The UK and World Economy?" 12th May, webinar, Jagjit Chadha
"How bad is the economic damage looking—and what are the prospects for recovery?", 13th May, Prospect, by Jagjit Chadha
"Moving Back Towards Market-Based Government Finance", 12th May, NIESR Policy Paper 018 by William Allen
"Will CPIH inflation understate inflation for April 2020?", 8th May, blog post by Huw Dixon
"Summary of NIESR forecasts ahead of key Bank of England report" - 4th May, a summary of key points outlined in our latest analysis for the UK and global economy
"The New Unannounced Monetary Policy" - 1st May, NIESR Blog Piece by Bill Allen
"Economists' Briefing, Covid Crisis: The UK and World Economy Contraction and Recovery" - 29th April, video, Jagjit Chadha
"Prospects for the UK Economy" - forecast from 252nd National Institute Economic Review, Cyrille Lenoel and Garry Young, 28th April 2020
"Prospects for the World Economy" - forecast from 252nd National Institute Economic Review, Barry Naisbitt et al, 28th April 2020
Jagjit Chadha's opening remarks at the launch of the 252nd National Institute Economic Review, 28th April 2020
"Monetary Policy in Troubled Times" - 27th April, Commentary to National Institute Economic Review May 2020, by Jagjit Chadha
"The slump of the 1920s" - 24 April, Preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252 by Jagjit Chadha
"Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy" - Czech National Bank, Global Economic Outlook, April 2020, by Martin Motl. Analysis at page 12 carried out using NiGEM, our in-house Global Econometric Model
"COVID-19: Debt Relief and the Global Poorest" - 23 April, NIESR Policy Paper 017 by Peter Doyle
"US and UK Labour Markets Before and During the Covid-19 Crash" - 23 April, National Institute Economic Review by David N.F. Bell and David G. Blanchflower
"The measurement of inflation during the lockdown: a trial calculation" - 22nd April, NIESR Policy Paper 016 by Huw Dixon
"Global value chains after COVID-19 and BREXIT: Is it the end of the world as we know it?" - 21st April, NIESR blog piece by Ana Rincon-Aznar
"The economy that fell to Earth" - 18th April, Prospect, by Jagjit S Chadha
"Quantifying the global macroeconomic spillovers of illness and lockdown measures" - 17th April, Preview from the National Institute Economic Review, May 2020, no 252 by Dawn Holland and Iana Liadze.
"A Program of Guaranteed Loans to Compensate SME Covid-19 Revenue Losses: Rapid Dispersal and Large Net Economic Benefits" - 14th April, NIESR Policy Paper by Alistair Milne
"Central Bank Operations in Government Securities During the Pandemic" - 9th April, NIESR Policy Paper by William A Allen
"GDP Could Contract by 15 to 25 Per Cent in Second Quarter" - 9th April, NIESR April 2020 GDP Tracker by Dr Kemar Whyte
"The case for supporting high quality home learning environments made stronger by COVID-19" - 8th April, NIESR blog piece by Dr Claudine Bowyer-Crane
"The Economy on Ice: Preventing Economic Contagion" - 7th April, NIESR blog piece by Spiros Bougheaus
"Economic Crisis – Virtual Special Issue" - 3rd April, National Institute Economic Review
"The Economy on Ice - Meeting the economic challenges during and after the COVID-19 crisis" - 1st April, NIESR Policy Paper by Spiros Bougheas
"The Fed’s enhanced swap lines and new interventions in the Treasury market" - 30th March 2020, Discussion Paper by William A Allen and Richhild Moessner
"COVID-19 crisis: Fiscal policy should lead and the Bank of England should follow for the duration of the crisis" - 29th March 2020, VOX, by Richard Barwell, Jagjit Chadha and Michael Grady
"The only lasting antidote to pandemics is a stronger civic society" - 29th March 2020, New Statesman, by James Noyes and Adrian Pabst
"A preliminary assessment of the possible economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak: update" - 27th March 2020, NiGEM Observations by Ian Hurst, Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt and Garry Young
"Concentrated firepower: central banks must expand their arsenal" - 27th March 2020, Central Banking, by Philip Turner
"Monetary Policy in Troubled Times: New Governor... New Agenda" - 26th March 2020, Occasional Paper by Richard Barwell, Jagjit Chadha and Michael Grady
"Universal basic income sounds appealing—but it’s the wrong response to coronavirus" - 23rd March 2020, Prospect Magazine, by Jagjit Chadha
"Fiscal Policy for the Coronavirus Maelstrom" - 19th March 2020, blog by Peter Doyle
"Containing the Dollar Credit Crunch" - 18th March 2020, Project Syndicate, by Philip Turner
"A switch to active fiscal policy" - 11th March 2020, Budget Response Note, by Jagjit Chadha, Peter Dolton, Chaira Manzoni, Xuxin Mao, David Nguyen, Johnny Runge, Kemar Whyte and Garry Young
