The Economic Impact of Covid-19
The Covid-19 pandemic impacted the UK and global economy in a variety of ways. Lockdowns closed many businesses, jobs were either permanently or temporarily lost and school pupils’ learning interrupted. It has left countries counting the costs of these measures.
Throughout the pandemic, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research charted the effects. We successfully contributed to the debate and suggested a wide range of measures to assist with policy response.
Our Research Projects
Our Research Papers
A Targeted Furlough Scheme to Help the Economy in Downturns
07 Feb 2022
UK Economic Outlook Box Analysis
Productivity in UK healthcare during and after the Covid-19 pandemic
30 Dec 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model
12 Aug 2021
Discussion Papers
Can machine learning catch the COVID-19 recession?
23 Jun 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic
11 Jun 2021
Discussion Papers
Monetary policy and government debt management during the coronavirus pandemic
16 Mar 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Be Kind or Take it on the Chin? Political Narratives, Pandemics, and Social Distancing
10 Mar 2021
Discussion Papers
What We Can Learn About Economics from Professional Sport During Covid-19
28 Jan 2021
Discussion Papers
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Causal Effects of an Absent Crowd on Performances and Refereeing Decisions During Covid-19
11 Dec 2020
Discussion Papers
An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization During COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation
23 Nov 2020
Discussion Papers
Reconstructing Macroeconomics after COVID-19: Notes for a First Draft
20 Oct 2020
Policy Papers
Time Series Models for Epidemics: Leading Indicators, Control Groups and Policy Assessment
19 Oct 2020
Discussion Papers
Projection of Demand for Trussell Trust Food Banks Due to the Covid-19 Crisis: Quarterly at the UK (National) Level
14 Sep 2020
Policy Papers
COVID-19 impacts on destitution in the UK
29 Jul 2020
National Institute Economic Review
Statement re House of Commons Treasury Committee Report
15 Jun 2020
Letters and Written Submissions
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The Economics of the UK University System in the Time of Covid-19
22 May 2020
Policy Papers
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The Measurement of Inflation During the Lockdown: A Trial Calculation
22 Apr 2020
Policy Papers
A Program of Guaranteed Loans to Compensate SME Covid-19 Revenue Losses: Rapid Dispersal and Large Net Economic Benefits
14 Apr 2020
Policy Papers
The Economy on Ice – Meeting the Economic Challenges During and After the COVID-19 Crisis
01 Apr 2020
Policy Papers
Monetary Policy in Troubled Times: New Governor… New Agenda
26 Mar 2020
Occasional Papers
A Switch to Active Fiscal Policy: NIESR Response to Budget 2020
11 Mar 2020
Budget/Fiscal Event Comment
Our Covid-19 Trackers
Reproduction Number (R) and Forecasts of New Cases: New cases projected to fall in all nations and regions
13 Jan 2022
Covid-19 Trackers
R Value for England Stable in the Third Week After Step 2 Re-Opening
06 May 2021
Covid-19 Trackers
Other Economic Trackers
No Sign of Persistent Wage Inflation Despite Lower Unemployment
18 May 2021
Wage Trackers
Construction and Education Recovery to be Followed By Retail and Hospitality
12 May 2021
GDP Trackers
Compositional Effects Push Up Average Weekly Earnings at End of 2020
26 Jan 2021
Wage Trackers
Largest Decline in Underlying Inflation Since the Start of the Pandemic
16 Dec 2020
CPI Trackers
2020 Shaping Up to be the Worst Year for Total Pay Growth Since 2009
15 Dec 2020
Wage Trackers
Underlying Inflation Moderated Due to Weak Demand and Uncertainty
21 Oct 2020
CPI Trackers
Headline Inflation at Multi-Year Low but Underlying Inflation Unchanged
16 Sep 2020
CPI Trackers
UK and Global Economic Outlooks
National Institute Economic Review Special Issue
Introduction: Economic contributions to infection control
01 Oct 2021
National Institute Economic Review
The great COVID-19 vaccine rollout: Behavioural and policy responses
01 Oct 2021
National Institute Economic Review
The statistical challenges of modelling COVID-19
01 Oct 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Endogenous social distancing and containment policies in social networks
01 Oct 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Time series modelling of epidemics: Leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment
01 Oct 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Notes and Contributions: The new battle of ideas: How an intellectural revolution will reshape society
01 Oct 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Commentary: Quantitative Tightening: Protecting Monetary Policy from Fiscal Encroachment
31 Aug 2021
National Institute Economic Review
Our Events
Productivity after Covid-19
Insights From Our Blog
As furlough comes to an end, recruitment procedures are not fit for purpose for older workers
28 Sep 2021
5 min read
Effective COVID-19 policy is not only about public health, but also about economics
13 Aug 2021
10 min read
Can an app help spot the gap? How technology might help address attainment gaps among early years children
28 May 2020
5 min read
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Global value chains after COVID-19 and BREXIT: Is it the end of the world as we know it?
21 Apr 2020
5 min read
The case for supporting high quality home learning environments made stronger by COVID-19
08 Apr 2020
5 min read
Covid-19 India Tracker
Together with researchers at Cambridge Judge Business School, NIESR has been working with Health Systems Transformation Platform in India, to provide a tracker that provides near term forecasts of the trajectory of the pandemic in India.
Devoted to the states and union territories, it identifies those that are at high risk of increases in infection incidence. The forecasts are published weekly and are based on a structural time series model that uses historical data in estimation but adapts to the trend emerging in the most recent period.
To view the latest tracker, please visit the Judge Business School website
Op-Eds
You can also find further reading on the Economics Observatory website – a new website that seeks to answer questions from policy-makers and the public about the economics of the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery.
“I miss the honey lady: How one resident helped her community to understand what is truly valuable”, 14 August 2020, Prospect, Jagjit Chadha
“Extending the furlough scheme would cost little – and benefit the whole of the UK”, 4 August 2020, The Guardian, Garry Young
“Robust public policies will determine the economic outlook for the UK”, 29 July 2020, Prospect, by Jagjit Chadha
“How universities can embrace the post-Covid future”, 19 June 2020, The New Statesman, by Peter Dolton
“Coronavirus queues are giving Britons a lesson in simple economics”, 18 June 2020, The Independent, by Jagjit Chadha
“Why Covid-19 should change the conversation on migrant workers”, 18th May 2020, New Statesman, by Andrew Aitken and Chiara Manzoni
“How bad is the economic damage looking—and what are the prospects for recovery?”, 13th May 2020, Prospect, by Jagjit Chadha
Jagjit Chadha hosts our Economists’ Briefing webinar on 29th April 2020
“The economy that fell to Earth” – 18th April 2020, Prospect, by Jagjit S Chadha
Dr Garry Young discusses the economic impact of COVID-19 on Yicai TV (YouTube)
“The only lasting antidote to pandemics is a stronger civic society” – 29th March 2020, New Statesman, by James Noyes and Adrian Pabst
“Universal basic income sounds appealing—but it’s the wrong response to coronavirus” – 23rd March 2020, Prospect Magazine, by Jagjit Chadha
“Containing the Dollar Credit Crunch” – 18th March 2020, Project Syndicate, by Philip Turner