Inaugural Dow Lecture: Do economists expect too much from expectations?

Part of the Festival of Social Science 2019 at NIESR. In recognition for its growing profile and its commitment to impact and engagement, NIESR was awarded an Impact Acceleration Account (IAA) from the Economic and Social Research Council in Spring of this year. As part of this, NIESR was delighted to host its first ever Festival of Social Sciences from 4th-9th November.

This is the first of an annual series of lectures in honour of prominent economist Christopher Dow. In this lecture Martin Weale reviews some of the influences on firms’ key expectational variables as measured in the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey. He focuses in particular on whether expectations of price changes affect outcomes, a relationship of particular importance in the economic models widely used in central banks. Finally he explores the relationship between expectations and outcomes, finding reasons to doubt that, as a generalisation, expectations are on average correct. He suggests some implications of the results for policy-making

Watch a summary video here,  and a full video here

Martin Weale is Professor of Economics, Kings’ College London and was NIESR Director  from 1995 to 2011

Where: NIESR, 2 Dean Trench Street, London SW1P 3HE

When: 17.30-18.30 followed by a drinks reception

Registration: The event is free but places are limited. Please RSVP at foss [at] niesr.ac.uk to secure a place.

Please note: Due to the nature of NIESR's Grade II listed building, we are unable to provide step-free access to our facilities and the Library is not currently accessible to wheelchair users, or those with limited mobility. We apologise for the inconvenience. Please do let us know in advance how we can assist your visit to the Institute – we are happy to discuss alternative arrangement in order to access our events.

Jagjit Chadha introduces Martin Weale at the Inaugural Dow Lecture	Martin Weale delivers his lecture, "Do Economists expect too much from expectations?"
Martin Weale received a medal to commemorate his role as the inaugural Christopher Dow lecturer	Generations of the Dow family enjoy some NIESR hospitality!

All photos © Tim Stubbs Hughes / Grey Swan