For our latest quarterly forecast, see the links on the left. For our archive of forecasts from 2016 to 2020, see the list here.
NIESR aims to set out projections of the future path of the Covid-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom, its constituent nations and the regions of England, based on current policies. NIESR has produced weekly updates on Thursdays from 18/02/21 to 03/06/21, moving to fortnightly from 17/06/21, projecting new cases and estimating the R number using a class of time series models developed by Prof. Andrew Harvey and Dr. Paul Kattuman of Cambridge University
In July 2018, following the introduction of a monthly GDP estimate by the ONS, we started a monthly tracker on the same day. The ONS estimate has a two month lag. NIESR supplemented this by continuing to provide an estimate for the previous month's GDP and, in addition, a full forecast for the quarter of publication.
Until June 2018 NIESR produced its own estimates of monthly GDP. An archive of these estimates and the methodology used to produce them is available here.
The ONS produces an estimate of Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) with a lag of at least 40 days after the end of the reference month. From February 2019 NIESR has been producing and publishing short-term predictions for UK Average Weekly Earnings. As with the GDP Tracker, during some months NIESR will publish predictions of earnings some five months ahead of the ONS data release. NIESR’s new Wage Tracker includes predictions for regular pay and bonus payments for the whole economy, as well as forecasts for private and public sectors wages. The Wage Tracker exploits information from key macroeconomic indicators, including labour market trends, building also on information from monthly GDP nowcasts produced by NIESR’s GDP Tracker and survey evidence, such as labour costs in the manufacturing and service sectors from the Bank of England Agents Score.
CPI inflation reflects changes in the prices of thousands of products, some of them quite volatile. Our monthly CPI Tracker looks in detail at changes in the prices of individual products to try to get a measure of underlying inflation. It builds on the work presented in the National Institute Economic Review, which constructs a measure of trimmed mean inflation based on the goods and services prices that underlie the consumer price index.
National Institute Term Premium Tracker aims to provide quarterly updates of the Treasury term premia estimates for the UK, the US and some selected European countries’ based on current daily zero-coupon bond yields data. The Treasury term premia estimates at the 10-year maturity and the expected average short-term rates for the same maturity are based on data from August 7th, 1997 to May 31st, 2021, which weights equally the so-called zero lower bound (ZLB) period – with the Bank of England’s short-term nominal interest rate at or near zero – and the period pre-ZLB. The analysis is based on a five-factor, no-arbitrage term structure model, described in detail in the references below. The estimates we obtain are broadly consistent with those produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
When the output is brought together, Institute staff start to make some sense of what has happened and think about what might happen. The main tool for forecasting is the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) but many other models are used to check assumptions and cross-validate projections. Details of subscription rates can be found on the NiGEM site.
The Institute is at the centre of the national debate on the measurement and understanding of business cycle fluctuations. We start this process at the fundamental level. The UK has some excellent long run data on economic progress and some of the basic facts of business cycle peak and troughs have been explored in earlier work at the Institute. Chadha and Nolan (2002) explored the long run of the UK business cycle and presented some stylised facts on duration and the cyclical behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates.
In May 2019 we launched a new Business Conditions Forum, comprising of chief economists and senior economists from major survey organisations, economists from the official sector, and NIESR economists with a special interest in the UK. The meetings, which will be held quarterly, will build on NIESR’s monthly Trackers for GDP growth and labour earnings by contextualising the quantitative results of the nowcast with the results of business surveys.
After each meeting (conducted under the Chatham House Rule) a summary of main findings will be produced and published under the tab on the left hand side