National Institute Economic Review

Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Lenoel, C, Liadze, I, Mao, X, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production. Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy...
Publication date: 30 Oct 2019 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Hantzsche, A, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 250 | Publisher: Sage Publications, London
The economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the United Kingdom’s trading relationships after Brexit. Domestic economic weakness is further amplified by slowing global demand. We would not expect economic activity to be boosted by the...
Publication date: 29 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Gasiorek, M, Smith, A, Tamberi, N | JEL classification: F6, F14, F15, F17; F42 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Ali-Yrkkö, J, Kuusi, T | JEL classification: F13, F14, F23, L23 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
We analyse the trade routes between the UK and EU countries. Our results show that the relative importance of the UK as a trading partner in the EU has slightly decreased. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Marschinski, R, Martínez-Turégano, D | JEL classification: F14, L16, L60 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The EU´s falling share in global manufacturing has fuelled concerns about an overall loss of EU competitiveness, in particular vis-à-vis China. We analyse the empirical evidence underlying these concerns by applying a newly developed decomposition technique to global input-output data spanning the...
Publication date: 30 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | External authors: Fritsch, M, Matthes, J | JEL classification: F14, F15, N14 | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
This article first introduces the concept, the rationale, the causes and the genesis of global value chains from a worldwide perspective in the form of a brief overview. In the second empirical section, a closer look is taken at the intermediate trade integration in the EU. In particular, the...
Publication date: 29 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Rincon-Aznar, A, Mao, X, Tong, M | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The world is undergoing an unprecedented shock as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns in nearly all economies. As major world economies are being put on hold, millions of jobs and incomes are being lost, which has created an imperative for economic policy actions....
Publication date: 28 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Naisbitt, B, Boshoff, J, Holland, D, Hurst, I, Kara, A, Liadze, I, Macchiarelli, C, Mao, X, Sánchez Juanino, P, Thamotheram, C, Whyte, K | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the control measures taken to combat its spread have changed the short-term global economic outlook in an unprecedented manner from that forecast just three months ago. In these highly uncertain times, we now expect widespread falls in GDP, particularly...
Publication date: 28 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Theme: Macroeconomics | Authors: Lenoel, C, Young, G | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Measures to limit the spread of Covid-19 are causing a severe contraction in economic activity of uncertain magnitude. In our main-case scenario, GDP falls by 7 per cent in 2020 and public sector borrowing rises above £200 billion in 2020–21, over £150 billion more than in the OBR's forecast at...
Publication date: 27 Apr 2020 | Publication type: National Institute Economic Review | Authors: Chadha, J S | Journal: National Institute Economic Review Issue 252 | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  The Commentary in this Review has touched on the mix of monetary and fiscal policies regularly since the Brexit referendum. The timeless issues relating to the framework for monetary and fiscal policy and their appropriate degree of co-ordination have been exposed by the Covid-19 crisis. We have...

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