Growth Petering Out at End of Year

Main points

• The UK economy is on course to grow by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter (figure 1).  This would be consistent with GDP growth of 1.3 per cent in 2019, down slightly from 1.4 per cent in 2018
• According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy grew by 0.0 per cent in the three months to October, this was marginally weaker than the 0.1 per cent growth that we had expected last month.  Output rose slightly in October in the production and service sectors, but dropped unexpectedly sharply in construction
• Recent surveys suggest that service sector output was little changed in November, with contractions in manufacturing and construction. 

​“The latest data confirm that economic growth in the United Kingdom is petering out at the end of the year. GDP was flat in the three months to October, and the latest surveys point to further stagnation in November and December.  The economy is being held back by weak productivity growth and low investment due to chronic levels of uncertainty. While some uncertainty could be resolved by the outcome of the general election, it is doubtful that this will provide businesses with the clarity needed to invest with confidence.” 
 

Dr Garry Young
Director of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

• Read the full forecast here