The Economic Impact of Leaving the EU

Published: 10th May 2016
  • A vote to leave the EU would represent a significant shock to the UK economy
  • In the short run, our analysis suggests it would lower GDP growth to 1.9 per cent in 2017, compared with a growth rate of 2.7 per cent in a world in which the UK voted to remain.
  • In the longer run, our analysis suggests that it would lower GDP by between 1.5 per cent and 7.8 per cent in 2030, also compared with a world in which the UK voted to remain.
  • Sterling would also depreciate in the longer-run, to close to parity with the euro by 2030.
  • By 2030, consumption would fall by between 2.4 per cent and 9.2 per cent compared to a world in which the UK remained in the EU. This translates into declines in annual consumption per capita of between £500 and £2,000 (at 2012 prices) by 2030.

Press release archive