NIESR Press Release: Monthly GDP Tracker - Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound

Published: 11th November 2019

Output Stagnating After Mid-Year Rebound

Main points

  • The UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 and is on course to grow by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter (figure 1).  This would be consistent with GDP growth of 1.2 per cent in 2019, down slightly from 1.4 per cent in 2018.
  • According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, driven by growth in the services sector.  This was a little weaker than we had forecast last month, partly reflecting downward revisions to the July and August data.  GDP fell 0.1 per cent in the month of September, the second consecutive monthly fall, slightly weaker than our previous forecast.
  • Recent surveys suggest that private sector output was flat in October. Nevertheless, we are expecting some growth in public sector output and so are forecasting growth of 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter
     

"The latest data confirm that the underlying pace of growth in the United Kingdom is slow, reflecting weak business investment growth.  GDP fell slightly in August and September and the latest surveys point to further stagnation at the end of the year.  The economy is being held back by weak productivity growth and low investment due to chronic levels of uncertainty.”

Dr Garry Young
Director of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

Please find the full commentary in attachment


Notes for editors

For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office or Luca Pieri on l.pieri [at] niesr.ac.uk or 074 054 96 121

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