Press Release: August 2014 GDP estimates

Author(s): Kirby, S, James Warren Published: 06th August 2014

ESTIMATES OF MONTHLY GDP
Embargoed until 15.00 hours on 6th August 2014

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in June 2014. This implies an annual rate of growth of around 3 per cent. While the economy regained its pre-recession size recently, a significant negative output gap remains. We expect the MPC to introduce the first interest rate hike in February 2015.

Notes: Our estimates are consistent with the quarterly GDP estimates published by the ONS. The major revisions, forthcoming this autumn, could have a significant effect on the profiles plotted in Figure 1. NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th August 2014) projects GDP growth of 3 per cent per annum in 2014 and 2.3 per cent in 2015.

Figure 1. The profile of recession and recovery

Notes: Our estimates are consistent with the quarterly GDP estimates published by the ONS. The major revisions, forthcoming this autumn, could have a significant effect on the profiles plotted in Figure 1. NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th August 2014) projects GDP growth of 3 per cent per annum in 2014 and 2.3 per cent in 2015.

 

A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal:

Mitchell, J. Smith, R. J., Weale, M. R., Wright, S. and Salazar, E. L. (2005) ‘An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth’, Economic Journal, No. 551, pp. F108-F129.

A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data for the inter-war period was published in the October 2012 volume of Explorations in Economic History:

Mitchell, J., Solomou, S. and Weale, M. (2012) ‘Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain’, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 543-556.

From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has caused us some problems in estimating GDP. From our November 2006 press release we have therefore reverted to using a model of private services output based on indicator variables.  This means that, while all our figures for calendar quarters are fully coherent with ONS data, our estimates of monthly private service output are not. The series can be thought of as indicating the underlying value of the ONS series.

ENDS
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Notes for editors: For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office or Brooke Hollingshead on 020 7654 1923/ b.hollingshead [at] niesr.ac.uk

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Website: http://www.niesr.ac.uk

 

Contents of Press Release (See pdf)

Table 1, Page 3: Summary Table of Quarterly Growth Rates showing Monthly Data, 3 months ending in that month, and Quarterly Growth (% per quarter). All contain Figures for Industry & GDP.

Table 2, Page 4: Output by Sector (Industry, Agriculture, Construction, Private Services, Public Services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP

Table 3, Page 5: Output in Quarter Ending in Month Shown by sector (as above)

Table 4, Page 6: Growth in Quarter Ending in Month Shown over Previous Quarter (% at Annual Rate) by sector (as above)