Press Release: NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker - UK Economy to grow again in 2020 Q1

Published: 11th February 2020


Main points

  • Latest economic data confirms that the UK economy posted zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, consistent with annual growth of 1.4 per cent in 2019. We expect a service sector-driven growth of 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, marginally revised from our forecast last month (figure 1).
  • Data published this morning by the ONS suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.0 per cent in the three months to December, consistent with what we had forecast last month.
  • Output increased by 0.3 per cent in December itself, largely reflecting growth in the services sector. 
  • Recent surveys show that all major sectors recorded an improvement in performance in January, primarily due to receding political uncertainty.

Dr Kemar Whyte, Senior Economist, said: “The UK is benefitting from a post-election boost to business and consumer confidence, latest survey evidence confirms. However, there is no guarantee that this will be sustained. The latest data confirm that economic growth in the United Kingdom had stagnated at the end of 2019. Despite the post-election bounce to confidence, the potential complexity of trade negotiations with the EU means a high degree of uncertainty could resurface, which would weigh heavily on economic growth.”

Please find the full analysis in the document attached


Notes for editors:

For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office: Phil Thornton on p.thornton [at]  / 0207 654 1982

or Luca Pieri on l.pieri [at]  / 079 305 44631

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