Professor Martin Weale

Professor Martin Weale’s main research interests include macro-economic policy, economic forecasting, life-cycle behaviour, health and well-being, and pensions and saving



1974-77 – Pt1A Maths Tripos, Pt 2 Economics Tripos, Clare College, Cambridge.

1977 – BA (1st Class Honours, Part 2 Economics Tripos).

2006 – Sc. D. in Economics University of Cambridge.


2011- Professor of Economics (part-time) Queen Mary University of London

2010- Senior Research Fellow, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

2010- External Member, Monetary Policy Committee

1995-2010 – Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

1993 – Visiting Scholar, Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis.

1986-87 – Houblon-Norman Fellow, Bank of England.

1981-95 – Director of Studies (to 1992) and Fellow in Economics, Clare College, Cambridge.

1987-95 – University Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Politics, Cambridge (University Assistant Lecturer to 30.9.90).

1979-1987 – Research Officer, Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge (Junior Research Officer to 1984).

1977-79 – Overseas Development Institute Fellow, National Statistical Office, Zomba, Malawi.









Additional Information


1999 C.B.E. for Services to Economics.

2001 Honorary Fellow, Institute of Actuaries.

2007 DScHonorisCausa, City University.


Board Memberships

1990-8 – Member.HM Treasury Academic Panel.

1992-2007 – Hon. Treasurer,  Alzheimer’s Research Trust (now Alzheimer’s Research UK)

1995-7 – Member.HM Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters (the ‘Wise Men’).

1996-2000 – Chairman. National Accounts User Group.

1997-2000 – Chairman. ONS Academic Panel.

2000-2008 – Member. UK Statistics Commission.

2004-2007 – Member. European Advisor Committee on Statistical Information in the Economic and Social Spheres (CEIES).

2006-2011 – Member. The Board for Actuarial Standards.

2008-2011 – Chairman. Centre for Measurement of Government Activity Advisory Board. Office for National Statistics.

2009- Member. Consumer Price Advisory Committee, Office for National Statistics

2010- Member. Monetary Policy Committee

2011- Trustee. Kennedy Memorial Trust



A. Books & Reports

1986 – British Banking: 1960-1985. The Macmillan Press Limited.pp. 232.With the late J. Grady.

1989 – Macroeconomic Policy: Inflation Wealth and the Exchange Rate. Unwin Hyman Ltd. pp. 364. With A. Blake, N. Christodoulakis, J. Meade and D. Vines.

1995 – The Reconciliation of National Income and Expenditure: Balanced Estimates of United Kingdom National Accounts, 1920-1990. Volume 7 in Studies in National Income and Expenditure of the United Kingdom.Cambridge University Press.With J. Sefton.

1999 – Review of the Revisions to the Average Earnings Index. Report Submitted by Sir Andrew Turnbull and Mr Mervyn King to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Published by the House of Commons. HC263.

2003 – Pension Reform: Redistribution and Risk. NIESR Occasional Paper No 56. Edited Volume

2008 – The Average Earnings Index and Average Weekly Earnings. Report to the National Statistician. Office for National Statistics.

B. Chapters in edited books

1983 – “Deflators in Input-Output Tables” in Input-Output Modelling. Eds M. Grassini and A. Smyshlyaev, IIASA, pp 525-546.

1984 – “Linear Economic Models” in Mathematical Models in Economics. Ed F. van der Ploeg, pp. 580, John Wiley and Sons Limited, 1984, pp. 37-56.

1988 – “The Accounting Framework and the Data”. pp. 25-46. With T. Barker.”Industrial Prices and Profits”. pp. 293-310.”The Company Sector”. pp. 389-410. With A. Goudie and G. Meeks .”Financial Stocks and Returns”, pp. 411-432, all in The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy. Ed T. Barker and A.W.A. Peterson, pp. 507. Cambridge University Press.

1989 – “Wealth Targets, Exchange Rate Targets and Macroeconomic Policy”. In Policy Making with Macroeconomic Models. Ed. A. Britton, pp. 192-234. Gower Publishing Co. Ltd. With A. Blake and D. Vines.

1990 – “Externalities from Education”. In The Market: Practice and Policy. Edited by F. Hahn. Macmillan. 1992. Reprinted in Recent Developments in the Economics of Education edited by G. Johnes and E. Cohn.

1995 – “Balanced National Accounts for the United Kingdom, 1920-1990”. In Social Statistics, National Accounts and Economic Analysis, Annali di Statistica, Serie X. Vol. 5. Ed E. Giovannini. pp. 155-181.

1998 – “Measurement Errors and Data Estimation: the Quantification of Survey Data”. In Applied Economics and Public Policy.Ed. Begg, I.G. and S.G.B. Henry.Cambridge University Press. Pp. 41-58. With A. Cunningham and R. Smith.

2002 – “The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy and the UK”. In A Companion to Economic Forecasting.Edited M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry. Basil Blackwell. Oxford. Pp. 386-408.

2003 – “State Pensions: Means Testing and Public Choice”. In Pension Reform: Redistribution and Risk. NIESR Occasional Paper No 56.Edited M.R. Weale.Pages 68-94.With James Sefton.

2004 – “Education and Economic Growth”. In International Handbook on the Economics of Education.Ed G. and J. Johnes. Edward Elgar. Cheltenham. Pp. 164-188.

2006 – “Survey Expectations”. Chapter 14 in Handbook of Economic Forecasting.Ed A. Timmermann and C.W.J. Granger.North-Holland. Pp 715-776. With M.H.Pesaran.

“Prosperity and Productivity” in Options for a New Britain.Ed V. Uberoi, A. Coutts, I. McLean and D. Halpern”. Palgrave Macmillan. London. Pp 33-50.

C. Articles in Academic Journals

1982 – “Trade and Aid Policy Analysis: Use of the Cambridge Growth Project Model”. Overseas Development Institute Review.No 1, pp 50-70. With V. Cable.

1983 – “Economic Costs of Sectoral Protection in Britain”. The World Economy.Vol 6, No 4. pp 421-438. With V. Cable.

1984 – “Quantity and Price Effects in an Analysis of World Trade Based on an Accounting Matrix”. Review of Income and Wealth. No. 1, pp. 85-117.

“The Accounts of the UK Public Sector”.Three Banks Review, No. 141. pp. 18-32.

“A Balanced System of National Accounts for the United Kingdom”.Review of Income and Wealth. No. 4, pp. 461-486. With T. Barker and F. van der Ploeg.

1985 – “Testing Linear Hypotheses on National Account Data”. Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 67, pp. 685-689.

1986 – “Two Populations and their Economies”. London Papers in Regional Science.Vol. 15, pp. 74-89. With R. Stone.

“The Structure of Personal Sector Short-Term Asset Holdings”.The Manchester School.Vol. 54, pp. 141-161.

Developments in New Keynesian Policy Formation”.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Vol. 10, pp. 185-190 With N. Christodoulakis and D. Vines.

1987 – “The Stock Exchange in a Macroeconometric Model”. Economic Modelling.Vol. 4, pp. 341-55. With N. Christodoulakis.

1988 – “The Reconciliation of Values, Volumes and Prices in the National Accounts”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. Vol. 151, pp. 291-221.

Exchange Rate Targets and Wage Formation”.National Institute Economic Review. No. 123, pp. 48-64. With A. Blake.

1990 – “Wealth Constraints and Consumer Behaviour”. Economic Modelling.Vol. 7, pp. 165-78.

“Monetary Union and the Balance of Payments”.Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 6, No. 3.With I. Begg.

1991 – Balanced Estimates of UK GDP: 1870-1913”. Explorations in Economic History.Vol. 28, pp. 54-63. With S. Solomou.

“Effective Protection in 1932 in the United Kingdom”.Economic History Review, Vol. 44, pp. 328-338. With M. Kitson and S. Solomou.

1992 – “On the Measurement of Well-being”. World Development.Vol. 20, No.1, pp. 119-31.With P. Dasgupta.

“Balancing the National Accounts”.National Institute Economic Review. No. 135, pp. 86-90.

“Environmental Multipliers from a System of Physical Resource Accounting”.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 297-313.

“Estimation of Data Measured with Error and Subject to Linear Restrictions”. Journal of Applied Econometrics.Vol 7, pp. 167-74.

“Imperfect Competition in an Open Economy”.Journal of Policy Modelling.Vol. 14.No. 5. pp. 599-629. With N. Christodoulakis.

“Financial Benefits of Higher Education: a Comparison of Universities and Polytechnics”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.Vol. 8, No. 2, pp.35-47.

“Higher Education: the State of Play”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 1-18. With M. Cave.

“Sir Richard Stone”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. Vol. 155, pp. 469-470

“Estimation of Trade Credit in the National Accounts”.Economic Trends.No. 467, pp. 130-136. With I. Begg.

1993 – “Balanced Estimates of National Accounts when Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: the United Kingdom, 1920-38”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. Vol. 156, pp. 89-105. With S. Solomou.

“A Critical Evaluation of Rate of Return Analysis”.Economic Journal.Vol 103. pp. 729-737.

“Measuring the Contribution of Financial Institutions to Gross Domestic Product”.Economic Trends.No. 475, pp. 146-155. With I. Begg and S. Wright.

“Fifty Years of National Income Accounting”. Economics Notes.Vol 22, No 2, pp.178-199.

1994 – Fiscal Policy and the National Debt. National Institute Economic Review. No. 147, pp. 50-61.

“An Input-Output Table for 1841”.Economic History Review. Vol. 47, pp. 545-566. With S. Horrell and J. Humphries.

“Education, Externalities, Fertility and Economic Growth”.Education Economics.Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 129-167. With C. Doyle.

Central Bank Independence: Credibility versus Co-ordination”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 61-77. With C. Doyle.Reprinted in Quarterly Review (the Journal of the Bulgarian Central Bank).

1995 – “Monetary Union and the Assignment Problem”. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.Vol 97, pp. 201-222. With J. Meade.

1996 – “UK National Income 1920-1938: the Implications of Balanced Estimates”. Economic History Review.With S. Solomou.

The Net National Produce and Exhaustible Resources: the Effects of Foreign TradeJournal of Public Economics.Vol. 61. pp 21-47. With J. Sefton.

“Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured: Estimates for France and the UK Based on the Approach Adopted in the 1993 SNA”. Review of Income and Wealth. Series 42, pp. 453-471. With I. Begg, J. Bournay and S. Wright.

1997 – “Britain’s Fiscal Problems”. Economic Journal.Vol 107, pp 1142-1157. With N. Pain and G. Young.

“Personal Sector Wealth in the United Kingdom”.Review of Income and Wealth. Series 43, pp. 297-318. With S. Solomou.

1998 – “Measurement Error with Accounting Constraints: Point and Interval Estimation for Latent Data with an Application to UK Gross Domestic Product.” Review of Economic Studies.Vol 65, pp. 109-134. With R. Smith and S. Satchell.

“Costs of Separating Budgetary Policy from Control of Inflation: a Neglected Aspect of Central Bank Independence”. Oxford Economic Papers.Vol. 50, pp. 449-467. With A.P. Blake.

1999 – “Monthly Data and Short-term Forecasting: an Assessment of Monthly Data in a VAR Model”. Journal of Forecasting.Vol 18, Pp 447-462. With E. Salazar.

“Education and Public Policy” Fiscal Studies.Vol 20, Pp 351-386. With J. Dutta and J. Sefton.

2000 – “The Average Earnings Index”. Economic Journal.Vol 110, No 461, Pp F100-121.With R. Chambers and R. Youll.

2001 – “Simulating the Transmission of Wealth Inequality via Bequests”. Journal of Public Economics. Vol. 79, Pp 93-128. With J. Gokhale, L. Kotlikoff and J. Sefton

“Consumption and the Means of Payment: an Empirical Analysis for the United Kingdom”. Economica. Vol. 68, Pp 293-316. With J. Dutta.

“An Automatic Leading Indicator of Economic Activity: Forecasting GDP Growth for European Countries”. Econometrics Journal.Vol. 4, No 1, pp S56-S90.With G. Camba-Mendez, G. Kapetanios and R. Smith.

“Income Distribution and Income Dynamics in the United Kingdom”.Journal of Applied Econometrics. Vol. 16, Pp 599-616. With J. Dutta and J. Sefton.

2002 – “Quantification of Qualitative Firm-level Survey Data”. Economic Journal.Vol. 478, No 112, pp.C117-135.With J. Mitchell and R. Smith.

2003 – “Tests of Rank in Reduced-rank Regression Models”. Journal of Business Economics and Statistics.Vol. 21, No 1, pp 145-155. With G. Camba-Mendez, G. Kapetanios and R. Smith.

“Biological Age- What is it and can it be Measured?”.Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics.With S.H.D. Jackson and R.A. Weale. Vol. 36, pp 103-115.

“Designing and Choosing Macro-economic Frameworks: the Position of the UK after Four Years of the Euro”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.Vol. 19, pp. 132-149. With R. Barrell.

2004 – “National Saving and the Stability and Growth Pact”. Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 42, pp. 1033-1038.

2005 – “An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth”. Economic Journal.Vol. 115, No. 501, pp. F108-129.With J. Mitchell, R. Smith, S. Wright and E. Salazar.

“Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth using Firm-level Survey Data”.Manchester School.Vol. 73, pp. 479-499. With J. Mitchell and R. Smith.

“Means Testing and Retirement Choices in Europe: a Comparison of the British and Danish Systems” Fiscal Studies.Vol 26, pp. 83-118. With J. Sefton and J. van de Ven.

2006 – “The Concept of Income in a General Equilibrium”. Review of Economic Studies.Vol. 73, pp 219-249. With J. Sefton.

Equality and Efficiency: Policy for Globalisation”. Applied Economics Quarterly. Vol. 56, pp. 23-34. With J. van de Ven.

2007 – “Uncertainty in UK Manufacturing: Evidence from Qualitative Survey Data”. Economics Letters.Vol. 94, No 2 pp. 245-252. With J. Mitchell and K. Mouratidis.

2008 – “Incidence-based Estimates of Healthy Life Expectancy for the United Kingdom: Coherence between Transition Probabilities and Aggregate Life Tables”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. Vol 171, pp. 203-222. With E. Khoman and J. Mitchell.

“Means Testing Retirement Benefits: Fostering Equity or Discouraging Savings”. Economic Journal. Vol. 118, pp. 556-590. With J. Sefton and J. van de Ven.

2009 – “The Economics of a Reduction in VAT”. Fiscal Studies.Vol. 30, pp. 17-30, With Ray Barrell.

“Economic Progress and Health Improvement” British Medical Journal.Vol 339.pp.1097-8. b 4575

“James Meade”. Economic Journal.Vol. 119.pp F423-F429. With David Vines

2010 – “Fiscal Policy, Fairness between Generations and National Saving”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy.Vol 29. pp 87-116. With Ray Barrell.

2011 – “Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?”.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.Series A. Vol 174. pp 327-348. With Silvia Lui and James Mitchell.

“A Cost-benefit Analysis of Cataract Surgery based on the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing”. Journal of Health Economics.Vol. 30. pp 730-739

“The Utility of Expectational Data: Firm-level Evidence using Matched Qualitative-quantitative UK Surveys”. International Journal of Forecasting. Vol 27. Pp. 1128-1146. With Silvia Lui and James Mitchell.

2012 – “The Dowager’s Hump: an Early Start?” Gerontology.DOI: 10.1159/000329828. Vol 58. Pp. 212-215. With Robert Weale.

“Monthly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain”. Explorations in Economic History.Vol. 49. Pp 543-556. With J. Mitchell and S. Solomou.

“Uncertain Uncertainty”.British Actuarial Journal.With M. Corder..Vol 17. Pp. 542-561.

2013 – “Can Life-long Learning Reshape Life Chances?” British Journal of Educational Studies.Vol 61.Pp. 25-47. With K. Evans and I. Schoon.

“Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data”.Journal of Applied Econometrics.Vol 28. Pp 580-603. With J. Mitchell and R. Smith.

2014- “Education and its Effects on Income and Mortality of Men aged sixty-five and over in Great Britain”. Labour Economics. Vol 27. Pp. 71-82. With R Dorsett and S. Lui