Dating Historical Business Cycles, 1700-2000

In this project, we plan to produce a new chronology of UK business cycles on an annual basis between 1700 and 2000 and on a quarterly basis between 1920 and 2000.

The project will seek to answer two main questions:

  1. When were the historic peaks and troughs in economic activity? As it stands, there is no reliable or consistent long-run chronology available. A chronology of record will be a valuable resource to academics, journalists, policymakers and the wider public.
  2. How has the duration and amplitude of the business cycle changed over time? Without a reliable chronology, it is difficult to establish how the cycle has evolved. The new chronology will allow us to determine whether the economy has grown more or less stable.

Funder: Office for National Statistics

Duration: July 2018 to June 2019

Research programmes