Integration of NiGEM into Phase II of the NGFS scenarios

To produce an enriched set of scenarios, publicly available in a user-friendly manner, in a similar format as the first NGFS scenario release. The scenarios will rely on a transparent set of assumptions and modelling choices, will ensure cross-jurisdictional consistencies and will provide a sufficient level of granularity to allow their usage for stress-testing and scenario analysis purposes.

 The following key macro variables were identified by the NGFS for inclusion in the output

 General economic outputs

•                     Gross domestic product (GDP)

•                     Consumption, investment, government expenditure

•                     Labour productivity – this is an instrument in NiGEM

•                     Technological innovation and capital productivity

•                     Unemployment rate

•                     Corporate profits, household income

•                     Government expenditure – this is normally used as an instrument, but is linked endogenously to capacity

•                     International trade flows

Specific economic outputs in the context of financial risk analysis

•                     Consumer price inflation

•                     Energy and commodity prices / quantities

•                     Interest rates

•                     Government bond yields

•                     Exchange rates between countries

•                     Equity market indices

•                     Real estate prices (residential and/ or commercial)