GDP Estimate

June 2018 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in May 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018.

May 2018 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2018 following growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March 2018.

April 2018 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.

March 2018 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the 3 months to February from 0.4 per cent in the 3 months to January and the official estimate of 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.

February 2018 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to January, unchanged from the preliminary ONS estimate for the final quarter of 2017. 

January 2018 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2017, an increase compared with the third quarter when the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent and the strongest quarterly growth estimate since the fourth quarter of 2016. Based on this, the UK economy expanded by 1.8 per cent in 2017.

December 2017 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to November, similar to our estimate from last month and slightly stronger than the official outturn for the third quarter of 2017 which was 0.4 per cent. The monthly estimate is closely tracking our forecast for real GDP growth for the final quarter of this year which also stands at 0.5 per cent. 

November 2017 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output expanded by 0.5 per cent in the three months to October, slightly stronger than the official outturn for the third quarter of 2017 which was 0.4 per cent. The monthly estimate is closely tracking our forecast for real GDP growth for the final quarter of this year which also stands at 0.5 per cent.

October 2017 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year, a slight increase in comparison with the second quarter when the economy expanded by 0.3 per cent. Although growth has nudged higher, the UK economy continues to lag behind other major industrial economies such as the Euro Area and US.

September 2017 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in August 2017 after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months to July: although activity has nudged higher, the economy continues to grow below its long run trend of some 0.6 percent. 

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