GDP Estimate

October 2016 GDP Estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in September 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in August 2016.

*See here for press release published 7th September 2016

 

September 2016 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in August 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in July 2016.

*See here for press release published 9th August 

August 2016 GDP Estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in July 2016 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2016.

James Warren, Research Fellow at NIESR said “We estimate that in the three months to July the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent, a marked economic slowdown. The month on month profile, suggests that the third quarter has got off to a weak start, with output declining in July. Our estimates suggest that there is around an evens chance of a technical recession by the end of 2017.”

July 2016 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2016 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May 2016.

June 2016 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in May 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in April 2016.

May 2016 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in April 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in March 2016.

Jack Meaning, Research Fellow at NIESR, said “UK economic growth continues to be subdued compared with the rates we saw at the end of last year. Some of this slowdown is undoubtedly a result of heightened uncertainty around the impending EU referendum, and so is likely to be temporary should the UK decide to remain in the EU after June 23rd.”

April 2016 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2016 after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in February 2016. This estimate represents the weakest rate of growth for the UK economy since the final quarter of 2012.

March 2016 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in February 2016 after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in January 2016. The particularly weak monthly figure for December 2015 continues to weigh on these three-month growth rates as our estimates suggest that the economy has expanded by roughly 0.4 per cent since the turn of the year.*

February 2016 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in January 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in December 2015. The softening of growth in the 3 months to January was primarily driven by weakness in the production sector in November and December.

January 2016 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in December 2015 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in November 2015. This implies the UK economy expanded by 2.2 per cent in 2015. Although this is a moderation compared to the 2.9 per cent growth in 2014, it remains consistent with the economy growing at close to its long-run potential rate.

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