GDP Estimate

December 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October 2015. This rate of growth is consistent with the continued absorption of spare capacity in the UK economy and our own view that the Bank of England is most likely to begin to increase rates in February 2016.

November 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in October after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September 2015. This implies that reasonable economic growth has continued into the fourth quarter of 2015.

* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 4th November 2015) projects GDP growth of 2.4 per cent per annum in 2015 and 2.3 per cent in 2016 (see here for the associated press release).

October 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in August 2015. This slight softening in the third quarter is expected to be temporary. It is consistent with our latest forecast for the year as a whole.*

* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th August 2015) projects GDP growth of 2.5 per cent per annum in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016 (see here for the associated press release).

September 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in August after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July 2015. Despite the slight softening, growth remains close to the estimated long run potential of the economy, but below the average rate of growth (0.7 per cent per quarter) observed since the start of 2013.*

August 2015 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June 2015. Compared to the same three month period in 2014, this implies a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7 per cent. This is consistent with our recently released quarterly forecast in which we expect an average rate of growth of 2.5 per cent for 2015 as a whole.*

July 2015 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May 2015. This implies that the economy has expanded by 2.7 per cent in the last 12 months.*

June 2015 GDP Estimate

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in April 2015. These estimates are consistent with a rebound of economic growth in the second quarter of this year. For the year as a whole, we forecast GDP growth of 2.5 per cent per annum*. We continue to expect the MPC to start raising interest rates in the first quarter of 2016.

May 2015 GDP Estimate

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in April after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2015. We expect the slight softening of GDP growth experienced in the first quarter of this year to be temporary and forecast the UK economy will expand by 2½ per cent for the year as a whole.*

April 2015 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in March 2015 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in February 2015. The start of the year has seen the economy grow at a reasonable pace. This is despite the poor performance of both the production and construction sectors.

March 2015 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in February 2015 after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in January 2015. Based on our monthly series, this is in line with the average rate of growth of the UK economy since June 2014.

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