GDP Estimate

February 2015 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in January after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in December 2014.

 

January 2015 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in December (2014Q4) after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in November 2014. By this estimate the UK economy grew by 2.6 per cent in 2014.

December 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in October 2014.

* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th November 2014) projects GDP growth of 3 per cent per annum in 2014 and 2.5 per cent in 2015.

November 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in October after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in September 2014.  This estimate implies that output growth remains strong going in to the final quarter of 2014 and is consistent with the expectation in our latest quarterly forecast that the UK economy will expand by 3 per cent in the year as a whole.*

October 2014 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in August 2014.

Note: NIESR’s monthly GDP estimates are consistent with the revised Quarterly National Accounts released by the ONS on 30th September 2014.

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September 2014 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in August after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in July 2014. This implies the UK economy has grown around 2.9 per cent when compared to the same period in 2013.

August 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in June 2014. This implies an annual rate of growth of around 3 per cent. While the economy regained its pre-recession size recently, a significant negative output gap remains. We expect the MPC to introduce the first interest rate hike in February 2015.

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July 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.9 per cent in the three months ending in June after growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in May 2014. Our estimates imply that the UK economy is now 3.2 per cent larger than in the same period last year.

June 2014 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.9 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 1.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2014.

May 2014 GDP Estimate

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 1.0 per cent in the three months ending in April after growth of 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in March 2014. By this estimate, the UK economy was just 0.17 per cent below its pre-recession peak at the end of April. Subject to data revisions and the uncertainties surrounding any out of sample predictions, it can reasonably be expected that the peak will be regained within the next month or so.

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