GDP Estimate

June 2013 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 1.0 per cent in the three months ending in April 2013. Our estimates suggest that both the production and private services sectors provided significant positive contributions to GDP growth in the recent three month period.

May 2013 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in April after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2013. The base effect from the weak level of output in the January 2013 has inflated the quarterly rate of growth in both the production sector and broader economy in the three months to April 2013.Underlying growth is weaker than the headline figure suggests.

April 2013 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in February 2013. Production sector output picked up sharply in February 2013, but this was largely a reversal the sharp drop in output in January. Our estimates suggest that both production sector output and the broader economy were broadly flat in the first quarter of this year.

 

February 2013 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.0 per cent in the three months ending in January 2013 after a decline of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in December 2012. We expect the UK economy to expand this year, but at a relatively modest pace. NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th February 2013) projects growth of 0.7 per cent per annum this year and 1.5 per cent in 2014.
 
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January 2013 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in December after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in November 2012. These estimates suggest a growth rate of 0.0 per cent in 2012, down from 0.9 per cent in 2011. These estimates for the final quarter of the year are distorted due to an artificially high level of output in 2012Q3. Removing these distortions suggests an underlying economic performance that is best described as flat.
 
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December 2012 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in October 2012. We do not expect such an anaemic economic performance to continue into next year. Growth is forecast to return in 2013, but not at speeds that will begin to close the UK’s negative output gap and bring down the rate of unemployment in that year.
 
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November 2012 GDP estimates

 

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October after growth of 1.0 per cent in the three months ending in September 2012. The economy is around 2.8 per cent smaller than before the onset of recession at the start of 2008. We expect the economy to expand by 1.1 per cent in 2013 and 1.7 per cent in 2014,returning GDP to its pre-recession level by the end of 2014. 
 
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March 2011 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in February after a fall of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in January. Most of the effects of the adverse weather in December should have been unwound in the most recent data. The underlying quarterly growth rate of the economy remains below its trend and the output gap is likely to be widening.

September 2012 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in August after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in July 2012. While we expect the economy to continue to expand, it will take more robust rates of growth than we have recently seen to close the UK’s large negative output gap. Significant downside risks to the outlook persist, not least the future evolution of the Euro Area crisis.

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