GDP Estimate

August 2012 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in July after declining by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June 2012. These data are distorted by the additional bank holiday and the moving of the late May bank holiday for the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. These estimates suggest the UK’s large negative output gap is widening.

October 2012 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in August 2012. This is the most robust rate of growth since the three months to July 2010. However, the strength of the figure for the three months to September is largely an artefact of special events (see note below). Economic growth is expected to be at a significantly slower pace in the coming quarters.

July 2012 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in June after growing by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in May 2012. These data are distorted by the additional bank holiday for the Diamond Jubilee. Underling growth was more robust than these headline estimates suggest. We estimate that underlying growth for the three months to June was around +0.2 per cent. Nevertheless, these figures suggest that the UK economy remains broadly flat; a trend that has persisted for around 24 months.

June 2012 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in May after declining by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April 2012. The UK economy has ceased to contract, but economic activity remains very weak. With the economy stagnant, the negative output gap is likely to widen further. We expect the UK economy to remain broadly ‘flat’ over the next 6 months. While significant downside risks persist, we expect economic recovery to begin to take hold in 2013.

May 2012 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April after declining by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in March 2012. The UK economy has experienced a modest increase in activity over the past couple of months, but remains weak. With the economy stagnant the negative output gap is likely to widen further. We expect the UK economy to remain broadly ‘flat’ over the next 6 months. While significant downside risks persist, we expect economic recovery to begin to take hold in 2013.

April 2012 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in March after no growth in the three months ending in February 2012. These data suggest the UK economy has avoided a ‘technical’ recession (two consecutive quarters of decline). With such weak rates of growth the UK’s negative output gap is likely to widen. But we do expect this economic weakness to be temporary, with the recovery taking hold in 2013.

March 2012 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in February after a contraction of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in January 2012. Avoiding a return to recession is obviously welcome, but at present the UK economy can best be described as ‘flat’. We expect the UK’s economic recovery to take hold in 2013.

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