GDP Estimate

February 2012 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output contracted by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in January after a contraction of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in December 2011. These estimates should not be interpreted as confirmation of a technical recession in the UK. These estimates do suggest that output has been flat since October 2011. We expect the UK economy to remain ‘flat’ over the course of this year (in our latest quarterly forecast we expect output to fall by 0.1 per cent per annum in 2012) before economic recovery takes hold in 2013.

January 2012 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in December after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in November. This implies the economy expanded by 1 per cent in 2011, half the rate of growth experienced in 2010 (2.1 per cent). The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.

December 2011 GDP Estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in November after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in October. Economic growth in the UK remains subdued. These data lend support to the further loosening of UK monetary policy. The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.

November 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September. It is welcome news that the UK economy has continued to expand. But the UK faces significant headwinds from the Euro Area’s sovereign debt crisis.

October 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in September after growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in August. UK economic growth over the past year has been anaemic; the level of output is only 0.5 per cent higher than this time last year. The level of GDP is still 4 per cent below its pre-recession peak, suggesting that this recovery will be the weakest of any since the end of the First World War.

September 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in August after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July. The UK continues to experience weak economic growth. But even this poor rate of growth is flattered by the drop in output in April. If this economic weakness persists over the next few months, the MPC will probably implement a further round of quantitative easing.

August 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in June. Special factors continue to exert their influence. The drop in output in April, due to these special factors, flatters the rate of growth in the three months to July. Underlying growth is significantly weaker than the headline number reported. The level of GDP is now only 0.6 per cent higher than a year ago.

July 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in June after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in May. The effects of one off events in April have depressed the overall quarterly growth rate. However, even accounting for these factors the underlying rate of growth is still likely to be weak. These figures do not provide a picture of economic growth that would support a tightening of monetary policy at this juncture.

June 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months ending in May after growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in April. Economic growth in the UK remains subdued. These figures suggest the level of output is still almost 4 per cent below its pre-recession peak. We do not expect the level of output to return to the pre-recession peak until early 2013.

May 2011 GDP estimates

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in April after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in March. Such a weak growth rate is a continuation of the UK’s relatively weak recovery. GDP growth continues to be below trend implying a widening rather than narrowing output gap.

Pages