Journal article/book/chapter

The UK Minimum Wage at Age 22: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

A regression discontinuity approach is used to analyse the effect of the legislated increase in the UK national minimum wage that occurs at age 22 years on various labour market outcomes. Using data from the Labour Force Survey we find an increase of 3–4 percentage points in the rate of employment of low skilled individuals. Unemployment declines among men and inactivity among women. We find no such effect before the national minimum wage was introduced and no robust impacts at age 21 or 23 years. Our results are robust to a range of specification tests.


The business case for equal opportunities

It has long been argued that equality of opportunity brings business benefits and that it is in employers’ interest to implement policy to promote equality of opportunity. Our analysis of the Workplace Employment Relations Survey 2004 found neither large and widespread business benefits, nor large and widespread costs associated with Equal Opportunities policies amongst the establishments that implement these.

The Expenditure Impacts of Individual Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and their Students on the Scottish Economy under Devolution: Homogeneity or Heterogeneity

Comparing each of the higher education institutions (HEIs) as a separate sector in the Scottish input–output table suggests that their expenditure patterns are homogenous and that any apparent heterogeneity in their conventional demand impacts depends primarily on scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals a disparity in their degree of dependence upon funding from the devolved Scottish Government.

‘Policy Scepticism’ and the Impact of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints under Devolution

A ‘policy scepticism’ has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional higher education institution (HEI) impact analyses. This paper provides a systematic critique of such scepticism. While rejecting its extreme form, the limiting effect of the binding public-sector expenditure constraints under devolution is noted and it is shown how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate these constraints.

Monetary policy choices in the pre-EMU period

We argue that the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of accession to the European Union and EMU can affect the growth rate of the economy in the medium term. Empirical analysis is employed. We discuss the effects of exchange rate choice, and of the timing of transition to EMU on the core accession countries using model simulations.

The impact of transitional arrangements on migration in the enlarged EU

FMW-Online Journal on free movement of workers within the European Union, no. 4, pp. 18-25.

The effects of EU aid on receiving and sending countries: A modelling approach

The European Union is currently discussing the European Commission’s future development aid budget as part of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) over 2014-2020. However, these discussions have largely neglected a discussion on the effects of EU aid for both sending and receiving countries. This study is the first attempt to quantify such effects of EU aid.

A Fiscal Stimulus to Address the Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Sub-Saharan Africa

in R.K. Mishra and K. Trivikam (eds, 2013), The Global Financial Crisis. Challenges and Opportunities, Academic Foundation and IPE, New Delhi.

OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom

NIESR contributed a chapter on economic growth, productivity and innovation in the UK, including contributions by Simon Kirby.