Journal article/book/chapter

Fiscal multipliers and prospects for consolidation

This article looks at various aspects of fiscal consolidation in 18 OECD economies. The prospects for fiscal consolidation depend upon the problems a country may face with its debt stock, the political will to deal with these problems and on the costs of consolidation. These costs are a function of the impacts of fiscal policy on the economy, which is the focus of this study. The analysis is based on a series of simulations using the National Institute Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. Fiscal multipliers differ across countries because the structure and behaviour of economies differ.

The Reform of Pay Setting

How should Scotland set the pay of its public servants? What institutions should it establish to do this and at what level should pay be set: nationally, regionally or locally? These issues are interlinked and are discussed in this chapter. The issue of reform transcends the debate about independence for many argue that the reform of pay setting is required even if the existing arrangements remain. In this chapter we shall look at the current arrangements for setting the pay of public servants in Scotland and contrast these with those in other small open economies in Northern Europe.

Job Cuts, Job Guarantees and Unions

Using unique nationally representative workplace data this paper shows that unionisation increased the probability of within-workplace job cuts and the incidence of job security guarantees. As theory predicts, both are more prevalent among market-sector workplaces with higher union density and multi-unionism. In the public sector, levels of unionisation affect only job security guarantees, not job cuts. Explanations are developed in terms of union bargaining power and union voice services.

The Effects of Organizational Change on Worker Wellbeing and the Moderating Role of Trade Unions

We explore the effects of organizational change on employee wellbeing using multivariate analyses of linked employer-employee data for Britain, with particular emphasis on whether unions moderate these effects. Our nationally representative data consist of 13,500 employees in 1,238 workplaces. Organizational changes are associated with increased job-related anxiety and lower job satisfaction.

La mutations de la representation des salaries en Grande-Bretagne [trans: The changing face of employee representation in Britain]

We chart the decline of employee representation in Britain since 1980. Evidence points not only to much smaller numbers of shop stewards but also to a much reduced role for those who remain.

The UK National Minimum Wage in Retrospect

This paper provides a retrospective summary of the effects of the UK national minimum wage (NMW) on labour market performance since its introduction in 1999. We use an ‘incremental differences-in-differences’ (IDiD) estimator to look at the effects of the NMW in each year through its differential impact across local labour markets. We find that the NMW is associated with a significant fall in wage inequality in the bottom half of the distribution. This suggests that geographical areas where the NMW ‘bites’ more have experienced larger declines in wage inequality than elsewhere.

Employment, Inequality and the UK National Minimum Wage over the Medium-Term

We assess the impact of the national minimum wage (NMW) on employment and inequality in the UK over the decade since its introduction. We evaluate its effects in each year, using an incremental differences-in-differences (IDiD) estimator. Identification is based on variation in the bite of the NMW across local labour markets and the different sized year on year up-ratings. We find that an increased bite of the NMW is associated with falls in lower tail wage inequality.

An Evaluation of the International Experience of Minimum Wages in an Economic Downturn

What should governments do with the level of the minimum wage (MW) in
times of recession? In an economic downturn when most workers face falling
real wages is it appropriate to let the MW fall or are the positive effects of the
MW on inequality enough to justify its uprating – and if so what might be the
consequences on a country’s employment level? This paper reports new estimates
of the employment effects of the MW by focusing on the recessionary experiences
across countries. Using international data we exploit: cross-national variation